The Energy Information Administration (EIA) International Energy Outlook 2021, says that global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will increase for countries both inside and outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) over the next 30 years under current laws and regulations.
Carbon dioxide emissions are the primary driver of global climate change.
It’s widely recognized that to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, the world needs to urgently reduce emissions but how that burden will be shared among regions, countries, and individuals has been a point of endless contention in international discussions.
The Biden administration had committed to reducing US greenhouse gas emissions to half of 2005 levels by 2030, but the principal policies for achieving that goal were ripped out of the Build Back Better Act after coal-profiteering US Senator Joe Manchin and every Republican in the US Senate refused to support the bill.
Between 2020 and 2050, EIA projects that total energy-related CO2 emissions will increase by 5% (600 million metric tons) in OECD countries (which generally have slowly growing economies) and by 35% (8 billion metric tons) in non-OECD countries (which generally have rapidly growing economies).
EIA projects that carbon intensity, measured as emissions per unit of primary energy consumption, will decrease in both OECD and non-OECD countries through 2050.
A region’s fuel mix largely determines its carbon intensity, and the government’s projection of carbon intensity decreases around the world as use of renewable energy grows and use of coal is reduced in many countries.
Prior to the Industrial Revolution, emissions were very low and output growth was still relatively slow until the mid-20th century. In 1950 the world emitted 6 billion metric tons of CO2.
By 1990 this had almost quadrupled, reaching more than 22 billion metric tons. Emissions have continued to grow rapidly; with humans now emitting over 36 billion metric tons each year.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change, has found that human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of green-house gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems.
IPCC concluded that continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.
It also said climate change will amplify existing dangers and create new risks for natural and human systems, particularly for disadvantaged people and communities. Many aspects of climate change and its associated impacts will continue for centuries, even if anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are stopped.
The risks of abrupt or irreversible changes increase as the magnitude of the warming increases, according to the worldwide panel of scientists. By the end of the 21st century the world faces a very high risk of severe, wide-spread and irreversible consequences of reckless industrial output of carbon into the atmosphere.
The EIA says average aggregate carbon intensity in non-OECD countries will be higher than in the OECD over the next 30 years because non-OECD countries are likely continue to use primarily fossil fuel-fired generation to support their more rapid economic growth over that time.
EIA also projected that energy intensity, the energy consumed per dollar of GDP, will decline globally through 2050.
Driven by technology and shifts away from energy-intensive industries in many economies, increased energy efficiency results in lower energy intensity.
In the non-OECD region, economic growth results in a faster decline of energy intensity than in the OECD region.
By 2050, the energy intensity of OECD and non-OECD countries becomes more similar as some non-OECD countries increase their share of less energy-intensive industries and their technology use becomes more similar to OECD countries.
Emissions-related policies also influence projections in energy-related CO2 emissions. Required efficiency, fuel, and technology goals are generally more prevalent in OECD countries, contributing to the relatively slower growth in emissions for the OECD relative to the non-OECD countries.
For more information on EIA projections of international energy-related CO2 emissions, refer to International Energy Outlook 2021.
A University of Rhode Island study found that at the root of global climate change and the worldwide plastics problem are two related carbon-based fuels — oil and natural gas.
Not only are the two among the key drivers of climate change, they are instrumental in the manufacturing of plastics. As storms intensify and become more frequent, the movement of trash from land to our oceans and, and vice versa, is only going to get worse.