New Jersey politics appears to be following a familiar script

One of only two gubernatorial races in 2025, in a state where politics often feels like a rerun of an old drama with new actors, New Jersey appears to be following a familiar script even as it is drawing significant national attention.

With less than a month until voters head to the polls, election forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe of the nonpartisan firm State Navigate projects Blue Dog Democrat Rebecca Michelle ‘Mikie’ Sherrill as the strong favorite to defeat Republican Giacchino Michael ‘Jack’ Ciattarelli — an outcome that would hand the GOP candidate his third straight statewide loss.

Nuttycombe’s model, which focuses on state-level elections, gives Sherrill a 90 percent chance of victory, projecting her to win 52.1 percent of the vote to Ciattarelli’s 45.9 percent.

The forecast lands as the race tightens and campaign spending soars past all precedent, with total expenditures expected to top $200 million — the most expensive governor’s race in New Jersey history.

Money is flooding into both campaigns, but Sherrill holds the edge. Her team reports $6.3 million in cash on hand, compared with Ciattarelli’s $3.7 million.

That advantage has powered an airwave onslaught of television ads, digital spots, and mailers — all part of a high-stakes battle for control of one of only two governorships up for grabs in the nation this year.

Historically, New Jersey voters have a habit of punishing the party in the White House — a trend Sherrill is attempting to break.

“The last time a party won three consecutive governor’s races was in 1961,” said Micah Rasmussen, director of Rider University’s Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics.

Still, Democrats enter the final stretch with a comfortable cushion: a voter registration advantage of roughly 855,000.

The race captures New Jersey’s political paradox. The state leans solidly Democratic in presidential contests but loves to flirt with rebellion when picking its governors.

“Democrats are overwhelming favorites to win a majority in the General Assembly,” says Nuttycombe’s State Navigate. “Mikie Sherrill is projected to get 52.1% of the vote and has a 90% chance of winning.”

Ciattarelli has built his campaign around the state’s affordability crisis, with a majority of voters naming the economy as their top concern.

President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on imported lumber, wood, and furniture raised the cost of building and buying a home, further aggravating the national housing shortage and stimulating the affordability crisis in New Jersey.

Sherrill, meanwhile, has hammered home a different message — tying her opponent to Trump, whose approval rating in New Jersey lingers at 41 percent.

That approach appears to be working. A Rutgers-Eagleton poll found that 51 percent of likely voters oppose the “MAGA movement,” a warning sign for any Republican hoping to win statewide.

While substantive issues like affordability and energy costs are central to the campaign, the candidates’ messaging has been significantly derailed by intense personal attacks, particularly following their second debate.

The campaign’s focus has been pulled away from policy debates by several heated personal exchanges.

The most explosive attack came from Sherrill, who accused Ciattarelli of profiting from the opioid crisis through a medical publishing company he owned.

The confrontation peaked during their second debate when Sherrill accused Ciattarelli, saying, “You killed tens of thousands of people by printing your misinformation,” referencing claims that his company’s publications downplayed the risks of opioids.

Ciattarelli has attempted to impugn Sherrill’s military record, focusing on disciplinary action related to a U.S. Naval Academy cheating scandal. He has called for her to release her full records, implying she is concealing the truth and remarking, “I got to walk at my college graduation.”

Sherrill explained that she was penalized for not reporting classmates who were cheating, and accused the Ciattarelli campaign of illegally obtaining and distributing her confidential military records.

Despite the punishment, Sherrill graduated on time and went on to have a decorated military career as a Navy helicopter pilot.

Sherrill accused the Trump administration’s National Archives of intentionally releasing a largely unredacted version of Sherrill’s military records to an ally of the Ciattarelli campaign to weaponize them for political gain. The National Archives has claimed that a technician’s error led to the unredacted release and has launched an internal investigation into the matter.

These attacks are considered fallacious “ad hominem” arguments—they target the person rather than addressing the substance of their policies. By focusing on character attacks, the candidates risk diverting the campaign from the substantive issues that voters care about.

Ciattarelli has shown little interest in distancing himself, praising Trump’s policies and refusing to criticize the former president.

The president’s move to fire federal workers and his threats to make others go without pay were aimed at pressuring Democrats to cut a deal to reopen the government, but New Jersey voters see these as abuses of power.

House Republicans are also having a hard time convincing independents to blame Democrats for the shutdown, since they have only worked 14 days since July 25.

About 600,000 federal workers are furloughed because of the federal government shutdown, which is Trump’s fourth. Other employees are working without pay because the administration considers their jobs critical to protecting property and keeping people safe.

Beyond the governor’s race, Nuttycombe’s forecast suggests Democrats are “overwhelming favorites” to retain control of the General Assembly, where all 80 seats are on the ballot.

That would preserve the party’s governing trifecta — a firm grip on the governor’s office and both legislative chambers — ensuring Democrats continue to set the state’s agenda on taxes, transportation, and education.

For Ciattarelli, the numbers suggest a familiar ending to a long political odyssey.

After losing narrowly to Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021, this election was supposed to be his redemption tour. Instead, New Jersey voters appear ready to close the book on his comeback bid.

If the forecast holds, Ciattarelli will become a three-time statewide loser — a dubious distinction in a state that has never lacked for ambition, irony, or expensive campaigns.

As Election Day nears, two things seem certain: this New Jersey political tune sounds awfully familiar and the devil is in the Donald.