President Donald Trump promised in his 2024 campaign to eliminate the national debt within eight years. “We’ll have it all paid off,” he told supporters in New Hampshire. “It won’t be hard.”
On Wednesday, the Congressional Budget Office released figures showing the national debt on track to reach $64 trillion within a decade, propelled by the tax and spending law Trump signed last July and an immigration crackdown that together add more than $5 trillion to federal red ink.
The gap between promise and projection is now measurable: $64 trillion.
The CBO’s annual budget forecast shows a federal government borrowing $1.9 trillion this fiscal year alone, rising to $3.1 trillion annually by 2036. Debt held by the public will climb from 101 percent of gross domestic product to 120 percent in 10 years — higher than at any point in American history, including the peak of World War II borrowing.
Interest payments on that debt will reach $1 trillion this year and double to $2 trillion by 2036, consuming nearly one of every five federal dollars and surpassing the entire discretionary budget Congress approves each year.
The nonpartisan scorekeeper attributed the deterioration to three Trump policies with a combined effect.
The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which extended 2017 tax cuts and added new breaks, will increase deficits by $4.7 trillion over 10 years. The administration’s immigration enforcement actions will add another $500 billion. Higher tariffs will raise $3 trillion in revenue, offsetting some but not nearly all of the damage.
“Our budget projections continue to indicate that the fiscal trajectory is not sustainable,” CBO Director Phillip Swagel said.
Trump campaigned on a pledge to eliminate the debt and, early in his second term, created the Department of Government Efficiency with a stated goal of cutting $2 trillion in waste.
Budget analysts estimate DOGE has cut between $1.4 billion and $7 billion — less than one-half of one percent of the goal.
The administration’s economic forecasts differ sharply from the CBO’s. Trump officials have said first-quarter 2026 growth could top 6 percent. The CBO projects 2.2 percent growth this year, fading to an average of 1.8 percent through 2036.
The president has pressured the Federal Reserve to lower short-term interest rates, arguing on social media Wednesday that lower rates would save “AT LEAST ONE TRILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR — BALANCED BUDGET, PLUS. WOW!” Swagel said at a news conference that perceptions of a less independent central bank could raise long-term interest rates, further increasing borrowing costs.
Social Security’s retirement trust fund is now projected to be exhausted in 2032, one year earlier than previously forecast.
The Highway Trust Fund will run out in 2028 due to overspending. The trust fund pays for some of our state roads and our interstate system.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had set a goal of shrinking the deficit to three percent of GDP by the end of Trump’s term. The CBO projects deficits averaging 6.1 percent over the next decade, reaching 6.7 percent in 2036.
“There are no surprises here or bright spots of encouraging news,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. “Our nation’s deficits, debt, interest payments, and trust funds are all in terrible shape.”
The bond market, she said, is watching. “A healthy balance sheet is critical for a growing economy, national security, and the ability to respond to unforeseen emergencies. With debt around 100% of GDP and growing, we will enter the next crisis with a higher debt-to-GDP ratio than we ever have had before.”
Michael Peterson of the Peterson Foundation called the CBO report “an urgent warning to our leaders about America’s costly fiscal path.”
Trump’s 2024 campaign website still carries the pledge to eliminate the debt.
The promise has not been updated to reflect the CBO’s finding that debt held by the public will rise by $26 trillion over the next decade — the equivalent of borrowing the entire annual output of Japan, Germany, and Britain combined.
The administration did not respond to a request for comment on the gap between its debt elimination pledge and the CBO’s $64 trillion projection. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has previously described the budget as reflecting the president’s commitment to economic growth and fiscal responsibility.
Jonathan Burks of the Bipartisan Policy Center said policymakers still have time to correct course. “Congress and the administration should seize the opportunity to act now before the available menu of choices becomes much more painful.”
The 2026 midterm elections are eight months away.
The debt is $38 trillion and rising. The president’s promise to eliminate it is a lie.
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