Continued support among Trump’s Republican cult is irreconcilable with reality

One year into his unprecedented second term, President Donald Trump commands the fierce loyalty of a defining minority, a base that views his sustained assault on legal and political norms not as a crisis but as a vindication.

His overall approval remains low, fixed in a band between 36% and 41%, yet within the Republican Party, his support is a fortress.

Roughly 85% of Republicans approve of his performance, a figure that has proven immune to scandal, indictment, and a governing style that a majority of Americans describe as worse than they expected.

This disparity is the central reality of American politics in 2026. While national polls show a significant majority, 56%, disapproving of his job performance, Trump’s strength is concentrated and intense.

It is driven most powerfully by white and male voters, according to demographic analyses, even as his support among Black, Latino, and younger voters has eroded since the 2024 election.

The resilience of this support presents a puzzle that traditional political analysis struggles to solve. Policy plays a role: 57% of Republicans believe his economic policies have made conditions better, but that figure may be subject to a reality test, as the consequences of inane trade wars, draconian spending cuts, and reckless arrogance drive up costs.

A deeper, more visceral dynamic is at work. For a core segment of the electorate, Trump’s transgressive behavior—his defiance of courts, his denigration of prosecutors, his rhetorical flirtations with violence—is not a bug in the system.

It is Trump’s most attractive feature.

“He gets away with it,” one supporter recently told researchers, summarizing the appeal with stark simplicity.

This sentiment reflects a shift noted by scholars and critics alike: a move from grievance politics toward the normalization of lawlessness as a form of political expression.

Trump’s repeated claims of “absolute immunity” and his dismissal of legal consequences resonate as a promise that the constraints of civility and law are negotiable for those with sufficient will and power.

This has tangible effects on the political landscape. Confidence in the president’s personal qualities has declined across the board since the start of his term.

A Pew Research Center survey finds only 21% of Americans are highly confident he acts ethically in office, a drop of 8 points. Notably, the fall is steepest among his own party.

The share of Republicans expressing high confidence in his ethics has fallen from 55% to 42%. Similar declines are seen in Republican confidence that he respects democratic values and possesses the necessary mental fitness.

Yet the approval holds. This paradox suggests loyalty is increasingly untethered from traditional measures of presidential conduct.

Analysts point to a “charismatic authority” built on constant transgression, where breaking liberal-egalitarian norms is the very source of the bond.

The political carnival, where rules are inverted and enemies mocked, has become a permanent state. The fool, as history notes, can become a king if the audience prefers the spectacle to the substance.

The foreign policy ramifications are pronounced. The administration’s transactional approach, exemplified by the contentious “Greenland Affair” and punitive tariffs against NATO allies, has shifted the United States from a predictable partner to an unpredictable actor. European allies are reassessing the foundation of transatlantic security, with Denmark framing U.S. actions as a desire to “conquer.”

This erosion of trust, security experts warn, weakens America’s strategic position globally, sacrificing long-term legitimacy for short-term displays of force.

Domestically, the GOP finds itself navigating this transformed landscape. While 73% of Republicans still approve of the president’s job performance, support for his specific policy agenda has softened.

The share of Republicans who say they support all or most of Trump’s plans has dropped from 67% to 56% over the past year.

Furthermore, a growing 61% majority of Republicans now believe their congressional representatives have no obligation to support the president’s programs if they disagree with them, a significant increase from the previous year.

The nation is left with two irreconcilable realities.

In one, the president is a historically weak figure presiding over a polarized nation where most citizens lack confidence in his abilities and ethics.

In the other, he is the unwavering champion of a movement that equates his legal battles with their cultural war, viewing each norm shattered not as a danger to democracy, but as a victory over it.

The final measure of this presidency may not be found in the topline approval rating, but in the depth of the conviction among those for whom the carnival never ends.

Rising prices—whether due to the declining value of the dollar, shortages caused by reckless trade policies, tariffs, or other factors—and similarly uncomfortable consequences of Trump’s policies are likely to bring those delusions to an abrupt stop.