Five weeks into the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, the conflict has defied every initial promise made by President Donald Trump while fulfilling the worst predictions of critics and honest brokers.
What was billed as a swift, decisive operation has instead settled into a grinding confrontation that is testing American resolve, draining global energy supplies, and exposing deep rifts between the United States and its traditional allies.
Despite initial predictions of a 4-5 week duration, the war —labeled “Operation Epic Fury” by the U.S. and “Operation Lion’s Roar” by Israel— has stretched into its fifth week, with both the aggressors’ military strikes and Iranian resistance continuing.
Trump now finds himself trapped between the public promise of imminent victory and the reality of a conflict that will not bend to his will.
On Tuesday, he told reporters in the Oval Office that the United States would wrap up its military campaign in two to three weeks. Hours earlier, he had lashed out on social media at European nations for refusing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, telling them to “go get your own oil.”
The contradiction is not lost on those watching from Tehran.
“We possess the necessary will to end this conflict,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tuesday, “provided that essential conditions are met, especially the guarantees required to prevent repetition of the aggression.”
Those conditions, as outlined by Iranian officials, include war reparations, recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the strait, and a complete halt to what Tehran calls “aggression and assassinations.”
The United States has offered a 15-point plan that would require Iran to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure, abandon its regional allies, and reopen the waterway under American terms. Neither side appears willing to blink.
The Strait as Leverage
The narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf has become the fulcrum on which this war turns. Before the fighting began Feb. 28, some 100 ships passed through daily, carrying much of the world’s oil and natural gas. Today, the strait is effectively closed, and Iran controls access.
The economic toll is now hitting American drivers. Gasoline prices crossed an average of $4 per gallon Tuesday for the first time since August 2022, according to AAA. The jump—35 percent since the war began—has become a political burden for a president who promised to lower energy costs.
But the damage extends far beyond the pump. Fertilizer exports from the region, which account for roughly 46 percent of the world’s urea supply, have ground to a halt at precisely the moment northern hemisphere farmers need them for spring planting. Analysts at Goldman Sachs warn that the current shortage will manifest as crop losses later this year, with the most severe impacts on food prices expected in early 2027.
Taiwan, the world’s leading producer of advanced microchips, depends on Qatar for one-third of its liquefied natural gas and 69 percent of its helium—both critical for semiconductor manufacturing. That supply chain has been severed.
The Human Cost
Numbers tell only part of the story. According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, at least 1,574 civilians have been killed in Iran since the war began, including 236 children. Lebanon’s health ministry reports more than 1,260 dead in the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. In Gulf nations, Iranian attacks have killed at least 50 people. American service members killed stand at 13, with 348 wounded as of Tuesday.
Amnesty International this week warned that Trump’s threats to target Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure would constitute war crimes under international humanitarian law.
“Intentionally attacking civilian infrastructure such as power plants is generally prohibited,” said Erika Guevara-Rosas, the organization’s senior director of research. “Given that such power plants are essential for meeting the basic needs and livelihoods of tens of millions of civilians, attacking them would be disproportionate and thus unlawful.”
When power plants collapse, she noted, water pumping stations stop functioning, hospitals lose electricity, and food distribution networks crumble. The threat to target such infrastructure, she said, signals “a willingness to plunge an entire country into darkness.”
Allies Push Back
The war has opened fissures between Washington and its European partners that may not heal quickly. Italy last week denied landing rights to U.S. military aircraft after determining their flight plans were linked to the war effort, according to a senior Italian official.
Spain has gone further, refusing not only base access but also overflight rights to aircraft involved in attacks on Iran.
Trump has responded with fury. On Truth Social, he wrote that European nations should “build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait and just TAKE IT.”
He added: “You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself; the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore.” This remark is widely considered a return to language that will ultimately destroy NATO, as member states wonder if the military alliance can rely on America.
The European refrain has been consistent: “This is not our war.”
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who initially backed the U.S.-Israeli attack, told a German newspaper Friday: “I’m just not convinced that what’s happening right now will actually lead to success.”
In Rome, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni—long considered a Trump ally—is watching her political armor crack. Her defense minister told a newspaper this week that “Trump goes his own way without listening to anyone but himself. We go our own way without subservience.”
Uncertainty about whether the U.S. would abide by Article 5 of the collective defense pact to keep Europe safe raises questions about whether NATO has the capacity to deter Russia from attacking its member states.
Russia and China Watch
The geopolitical ripple effects are perhaps more significant than anything happening on the battlefield. Russia, which three months ago was offering oil at $22 per barrel to attract buyers, is now selling at $100 per barrel. The Financial Times estimates Moscow is collecting an additional $150 million daily from surging oil prices.
The United States has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil. It has also diverted $750 million in NATO-provided funding intended for Ukraine to restock American military inventories depleted by the Iran campaign.
China, meanwhile, has used the conflict to underscore what it sees as American overreach. Beijing recently restated that it is not ruling out military intervention in Taiwan, a message widely interpreted as taking advantage of U.S. military and political resources being consumed elsewhere.
No Good Options
Military analysts describe a situation with no clean exits. A withdrawal without achieving stated objectives would be a humiliation for American power. Continuing the campaign risks deepening the economic pain and further eroding public support. Escalation—whether through ground operations or strikes on energy infrastructure—carries its own perils.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Tuesday refused to rule out the use of American ground forces. “You can’t fight and win a war if you tell your adversary what you are willing to do, or what you are not willing to do,” he said.
But the Pentagon has already begun repositioning forces. Elements of the 82nd Airborne Division, including its headquarters and a brigade combat team, are deploying to the Middle East. They will join roughly 50,000 U.S. personnel already in the region and thousands of Marines on amphibious assault ships.
Iran has signaled it expects a possible incursion from Kuwait, either across the Iraqi border or by sea onto Kharg Island—Iran’s primary oil export terminal. The Iranian response, officials have made clear, would be immediate and severe.
The Information War
As conventional fighting continues, another battle rages online. AI-generated videos claiming to show burning American aircraft carriers, crying soldiers, and devastated Gulf cities circulate widely on social media. Some are so convincing that Trump said he called his generals to verify whether the USS Abraham Lincoln was actually on fire.
“False information can spread up to ten times faster than accurate reporting on social media,” said Marc Owen Jones, a professor at Northwestern University in Qatar who studies digital disinformation. “Outrage drives sharing before fact-checking can occur, which is exactly what bad actors exploit.”
The result is a conflict where reality and fabrication are increasingly difficult to separate—a fog of war amplified by technology.
What Comes Next
Trump is scheduled to address the nation on Wednesday evening. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the president would provide “an important update” on the war. What he will say remains unclear.
On Tuesday, he offered competing narratives: the war would end soon; negotiations were proceeding well; European allies were cowards; Iran had agreed to most of his demands. The Iranian foreign minister denied that any formal negotiations were taking place.
In Pakistan, officials say they are ready to host talks in the coming days. Whether either side is prepared to make the concessions necessary for an agreement remains unknown.
What is known is this: The war has entered its fifth week. The objectives announced at its outset—regime change in Tehran, the dismantling of Iran’s military capacity—remain unachieved. The Iranian leadership appears more confident than when the bombing began. And the American president, who promised a quick victory, is now telling the country he will be leaving soon—without explaining what leaving means, or what will be left behind.
A Pakistani defense minister recently posted on social media: “The goal of the war seems to have shifted to opening the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before the war.”
It was a simple observation. But it cut to the heart of a conflict that has already lasted far longer, cost far more, and delivered far less than anyone planned.
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