Trump and Iran agree to two-week ceasefire deal

Just ninety minutes before the bombs were set to fall, the whole thing got called off. That is the simple fact of the matter, and you can take it or leave it, but it happens to be true.

The president had given the Iranians until eight o’clock Monday night to open the Strait of Hormuz or else he would, in his own words, wipe out a whole civilization. Bridges, power plants, the works.

With the clock ticking down like something out of a cheap suspense picture, he blinked. Or maybe he wised up. History will have to sort that one out.

What we know for certain is this. The president announced on social media that he would suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for two weeks.

The condition, and there is always a condition with these things, is that Iran must open the Strait of Hormuz completely, immediately, and safely.

The president said he had received a ten-point proposal from Tehran that forms a workable basis for continued negotiations. He called it a double-sided ceasefire, which is a bit like calling water wet, but we will let that pass.

The Pakistanis brokered the whole thing. Their prime minister and their general asked for the extension, and the president granted it.

The Iranians say they will allow safe passage through the strait for two weeks, subject to coordination with their military. That word coordination is a slippery one. It could mean anything from a simple radio call to a full inspection regime. We will see.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged Trump not to pursue a ceasefire during a phone call on Sunday, Netanyahu expressing reservations that a possible truce with Iran engenders strategic risks.

During a phone call on Sunday, Netanyahu expressed reservations about a possible truce with Iran, warning it could carry strategic risks

Now here is the part that ought to give any clear-thinking person pause. Iran’s ten-point proposal is not a surrender document. It is not even close. They want a permanent end to the war. They want an end to attacks on their proxy groups. They want a formal role overseeing the strait. They want the withdrawal of all American combat forces from the entire region. They want full compensation for war damage. They want all sanctions lifted. They want their frozen assets released.

The president calls this a workable basis for negotiation. Let us translate that from Washington-speak into plain English. The man who promised to wipe out a civilization has agreed to talk while Iran keeps its nuclear program, keeps its missiles, keeps its proxies, and demands that America pack up and go home. That is not a ceasefire. That is a reset button, and the Iranians are the ones pushing it.

The Israelis are not saying much, and that is a story in itself. Their prime minister has been talking about crushing Iran’s terror regime and eliminating the Revolutionary Guard’s money machine. He does not seem interested in stopping. The president, meanwhile, seems to have given up on regime change altogether. One veteran negotiator put it plain. Regime change is out, he said. Legitimizing this regime is in. A brutal, repressive regime has survived the world’s most powerful military.

And why has the president changed course? You can believe in the power of diplomacy if it makes you feel better. But the simpler explanation is that gas prices had nearly doubled and his approval ratings were falling. Midterm elections are coming. Funny how that works. The moment the ceasefire was announced, the price of oil dropped fourteen percent. Stock futures shot up. Coincidence? Sure. And the sun sets in the east.

Let us be clear about what happened here. For weeks the president and his defense secretary have been telling the American people that the war was an unqualified success. Complete control of Iranian skies, they said. Iran embarrassed and humiliated. And then an F-15 got shot down by a shoulder-fired missile. A lucky hit, the president called it. Maybe so. But lucky hits have a way of changing minds. Two American airmen had to be rescued deep inside Iranian territory. They made it out alive, which is more than can be said for seven other American troops killed in this conflict.

The defense secretary keeps talking about missile launch counts and air superiority. But the Iranian-backed groups are still firing from Lebanon and Iraq. The missile launchers are still there. The drones are still coming. And the American magazine, as they say in the military, is getting low.

The pope weighed in, because of course he did. He called the threat to destroy a whole civilization unacceptable. He suggested Americans call their congressmen and ask for peace. That is the kind of advice that sounds naive until you realize the alternative is bombing bridges full of civilians.

So here we are. Two weeks of talking. Two weeks of watching to see if the strait stays open. Two weeks to find out whether this is the beginning of something or just a pause before something worse. The president says he has already met and exceeded all military objectives. What those objectives were, beyond destruction for its own sake, remains unclear. What is clear is that the same regime he promised to obliterate is now sitting across the table from him, asking for compensation and the removal of American bases.

You do not have to be a genius to see the shape of things. The man who wanted to wipe out a civilization has settled for a conversation. The regime that was supposed to collapse is still standing. And the American people are left to wonder what exactly we have gained from all of this, besides higher gas prices and a list of names that will not be coming home. That is the way it is. And that is the way it has always been, long before this president and long after him. The only thing that changes is the volume of the promises and the size of the bill.