President Joe Biden is facing increasing political pressure to respond forcefully to a deadly drone strike on U.S. troops, who are under fire from Iran-linked groups in Iraq and Syria as they complete the military mission that brought them to the Middle East.
“We had a tough day last night in the Middle East,” Biden said, before leading a moment of silence. “And we shall respond.”
Biden said Iran was responsible for the attack “in the sense that they are supplying the weapons to the people who did it” without concern for the fact that the United States is the world’s biggest arms supplier, accounting for 40% of global weapons exports from 2018-2022.
U.S. dominance in the global weapons trade increased dramatically over the past five years, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
The drone strike, which occurred at a base in Jordan, resulted in the death of three U.S. soldiers and has intensified the challenges Biden faces in an election year. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group for Iran-linked militias, claimed responsibility for the attack while Iran has denied any involvement.
There have been at least 165 attacks by Iran-linked militias against American troops since the Israel-Gaza war began.
“I’m praying for the families of our brave servicemembers who were killed and hoping for a swift recovery for those injured,” said US Senator Bob Menendez, a warmongering hawk who has heavily influenced foreign policy. “The U.S. must hold the Iran-backed militia accountable for its attack on U.S. troops in Jordan.”
“For months, I have been raising the alarm bells on Iran’s nefarious activities through its proxies. The U.S. must establish a strong deterrence, so this will not happen again,” said Menendez, who is under indictment for spying on behalf of Egypt and Qatar.
Iran backs Hamas, the militant group that rules Gaza, and Hezbollah, the militant group and political party based in Lebanon. Since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack drew Israel’s retaliatory war in Gaza, attacks by militias linked to Iran have become a daily occurrence across the Middle East.
The United States had close to 3,000 troops in Jordan as of 2023, according to the Congressional Research Service, focused on Jordanian security and the Islamic State. Officials said Monday that while the drone was approaching Tower 22, a base in the country’s northeast, it was mistaken for a returning American aircraft.
The roughly 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in Syria are described by U.S. officials as part of an operation to keep the Islamic State from regaining a foothold in the region.
But with the jihadist group largely degraded, American soldiers now find themselves targeted by other adversaries, who say the attacks will continue as long as Washington maintains its support for Israel’s war in Gaza.
On Oct. 18, 20 American troops suffered “minor injuries” after one-way drones targeted the al-Tanf Garrison in southeastern Syria.
In December, Iran-backed militias critically injured a U.S. service member in Iraq’s Irbil air base. In January, four American personnel were injured when militants launched ballistic missiles at Iraq’s Ain al-Asad Air Base, which houses U.S. troops.
The Houthis, an Iran-allied rebel group, started targeting ships in the Red Sea in November, including U.S. warships. The group’s continued attacks against one of the world’s busiest waterways have taken an outsize bite of global shipping.
Republicans, led by former President Donald Trump, are urging Biden to take direct action against Iran. Trump characterized the incident as a consequence of Biden’s perceived weakness, drawing attention to a deal the Biden administration struck with Iran last year, releasing U.S. captives in exchange for unblocking $6 billion in Iranian funds.
The Biden administration has pointed fingers at Iran-backed militias for the attack, denying any link between the strike and the broader geopolitical landscape.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby emphasized that Biden’s decision would not be swayed by political calculations, stating, “He’s not looking at political calculations, or the polling or the electoral calendar as he works to protect our troops ashore and our ships at sea.”
However, the political stakes are high for Biden, who is grappling with low approval ratings and the looming threat of a direct confrontation with Iran. Colin Clarke, research director at the Soufan Center in New York, highlighted the precarious position Biden finds himself in: “He’s under tremendous pressure—the administration’s in a kind of a lose-lose situation.”
The White House announced on Monday that Biden is “weighing his options” for a significant response to the attack. Direct military strikes on Iranian territory would risk escalating tensions and widening the conflict, while even limited actions against Tehran’s proxies could complicate efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza.
Republican leaders, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senator Lindsey Graham, are using the situation to test Biden’s strength ahead of the upcoming elections. Graham explicitly called for immediate and forceful action, saying, “Hit Iran now. Hit them hard.”
The dilemma facing Biden is multifaceted. Any military escalation could undermine his administration’s goal of extricating the U.S. from prolonged conflicts in the Middle East. Moreover, there is a domestic political risk, as Clarke noted, with the potential alienation of part of Biden’s progressive and anti-war base.
As the Biden administration navigates these challenges, the specter of further military engagement looms large, with potential consequences for both U.S. foreign policy and domestic politics. The situation remains fluid, and Biden’s response will likely have far-reaching implications on the trajectory of events in the region and his political standing at home.