In a five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup that includes independent and Green Party candidates, a Quinnipiac University national poll of registered voters said President Joe Biden receives 39 percent support, former President Donald Trump receives 37 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 14 percent support, independent candidate Cornel West receives 3 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support.
That result is an outlier among public opinion surveys, most of which show the presidential election as a nailbiter with two undesirable contenders dividing a majority of the electorate in a race that is within the margin of error and too close to call.
Among independents in the five-person race, Biden receives 35 percent support, Trump receives 27 percent support, Kennedy receives 24 percent support, West receives 5 percent support, and Stein receives 5 percent support.
If Nimarata Haley, a former United Nations ambassador and South Carolina governor, were the Republican presidential candidate, Biden would receive 36 percent support, Haley would get 29 percent support, Kennedy would receive 21 percent support, as the share for West and Stein would be unchanged.
In a two-candidate contest, 47 percent said they would support Haley and 42 percent indicated support for Biden. Biden had a lead over Trump 50 – 44 percent among registered voters in a hypothetical two-way election.
“The gender demographic tells a story to keep an eye on. Propelled by female voters in just the past few weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy. In a head-to-head matchup against Biden, Haley outperforms Trump, thanks to independents. Add third-party candidates to the mix and her numbers slip in part because of her weakness among Republicans.”
With the 2024 Republican presidential primary now whittled down to two candidates, 77 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters support Trump, and 21 percent support Haley. In December’s poll with more candidates in the race, Trump received 67 percent support and Haley received 11 percent support.
In the 2024 Democratic presidential primary, Biden receives 78 percent support among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, author Marianne Williamson receives 11 percent support, and U.S. Representative from Minnesota Dean Phillips receives 6 percent support.
Voters give Biden a negative 41 – 55 percent job approval rating. While still deep in the red, it is the President’s highest job approval rating since June 2023.
“As inflation fears cool and the bruising campaign heats up, President Biden rides a welcome small uptick in confidence in his handling of the economy,” said Malloy.
More than 8 in 10 voters (84 percent) are either very concerned (41 percent) or somewhat concerned (43 percent) that the United States will be drawn into a military conflict in the Middle East, while 15 percent are either not so concerned (11 percent) or not concerned at all (4 percent).
“Are the winds of war swirling in the sands of the Middle East? As American troops take deadly fire from terrorist proxies, the conflict footprint is broadening and with it, the concerns of a large majority of voters are solidifying,” said Malloy.
Given a list of 10 issues and asked which is the most urgent one facing the country today, 24 percent of voters say preserving democracy in the United States, 20 percent say the economy, and 20 percent say immigration.
Among independents, the top issues are preserving democracy in the United States (23 percent), immigration (19 percent), and the economy (18 percent).
“If Donald Trump is our opponent, we can expect vile attacks, endless lies, and massive spending,” says Biden’s website, which is entirely devoid of issues, achievements, or other substance.