Researchers are sounding the alarm about the growing threat of rapidly intensifying hurricanes in the North Atlantic and their potential to increase flood hazards along coastal regions.
As the impacts of climate change become more pronounced, hurricanes that rapidly intensify pose a particularly frightening threat to those in harm’s way.
Recent studies, including one published in AGU’s Geophysical Research Letters, shed light on the dangerous implications of these extreme weather events.
Hurricanes are the most damaging natural hazard to the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts, posing significant risks to coastal communities.
The Atlantic hurricane season, spanning from June 1 to November 30, encompasses a vast area including the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
Rapid intensification (RI) refers to a rapid increase in a hurricane’s wind speed, typically by at least 30 knots (35 mph) within a 24-hour period.
This phenomenon, exemplified by past hurricanes like Andrew (1992) and Katrina (2005), presents challenges for forecasting and preparation efforts, leaving little time for coastal regions to brace for high-intensity storms.
There have been 115 hurricanes or tropical storms that affected the U.S. state of New Jersey. Due to its location, few hurricanes have hit the state directly, though numerous hurricanes have passed near or through New Jersey in its history.
About every 10 years, hurricanes approach the coastline close enough to send waves over barrier islands’ dunes and into back bays.
While 15 hurricanes have passed close to New Jersey since 1850, only one made landfall in the Garden State, according to NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks. Dubbed the 1903 New Jersey Hurricane, this tropical system made landfall in Atlantic City in September 1903.
New Jersey has seen the remnants of several once-powerful hurricanes, some resulting in heavy damage. Nine storms dropped over 10 inches of rainfall in the state, including a hurricane in 1940 that interacted with a cold front and dropped 24 inches of rainfall in Gloucester County.
Tropical cyclones affect New Jersey the most during September, though the state has experienced tropical cyclones throughout the hurricane season, excluding November.
Numerous hurricanes that remained offshore have each drowned small numbers of swimmers.
In 2012, Hurricane Sandy came within 50 miles of the coastline before moving ashore in Brigantine as an extratropical cyclone, which had its strongest winds near the tropopause–or the upper limit of the troposphere–about 8 miles up.
The storm brought hurricane-force winds, record low pressure, and a momentous storm surge along areas of the coast as it became the worst hurricane to affect the state on record, killing 37 people and causing nearly $30 billion in damages.
Widespread devastation occurred, particularly on Long Beach Island and the Barnegat Peninsula, where the Seaside Heights boardwalk collapsed into the ocean. Further north, storm surge flooding caused massive destruction along the Raritan Bay and trapped thousands in Hoboken.
All of New Jersey Transit’s commuter rail operations were affected, with some lines out of service for over a month. Sandy also caused the worst power outage in state history, blacking out over 2 million households.
The recent study by Princeton researchers delves into the link between climate change and the increasing likelihood of RI events, particularly concerning their impact on coastal flooding.
By analyzing synthetic hurricane data under historical and future climate scenarios, the researchers uncovered alarming trends.
According to the study, the probability of RI events near landfall is expected to rise significantly in the coming decades. The likelihood of RI within 24 hours of landfall could increase from 15% to 28% under future climate scenarios.
Additionally, the study projects unprecedented intensity changes by the end of the century, with some hurricanes experiencing wind intensity increases exceeding 100 knots (115 mph) within a day.
Lead author Joseph Lockwood emphasized the urgent need for adaptation and preparedness, noting that coastal areas are already vulnerable to damage from landfalling hurricanes.
With the projected increase in RI events, coastal communities face limited time to prepare for these high-intensity storms.
The study also highlights the current hazards posed by RI events, which produce significantly higher rainfall levels compared to non-rapidly intensifying hurricanes. This increased rainfall contributes to the greater potential for flooding, especially in low-lying coastal areas.
In a related study by scientists at the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), researchers identified two distinct modes of rapid intensification in hurricanes. These modes, referred to as “marathon” and “sprint,” represent different mechanisms that drive the rapid strengthening of hurricanes.
The findings from both studies underscore the complex challenges posed by rapidly intensifying hurricanes and the need for improved forecasting, adaptation strategies, and community resilience measures.
As climate change continues to influence the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, coastal regions must prioritize proactive measures to mitigate the growing flood hazards associated with these powerful storms.
The research represents a collaborative effort among scientists and institutions to better understand and address the escalating risks posed by climate change-induced hurricanes in the North Atlantic.