By James J. Devine
Shares of the social media company that constitute most of Donald Trump’s net worth tanked after the jury delivered its verdict, making him the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime.
After roughly nine hours of deliberation, jurors unanimously found Trump guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business documents to conceal payments meant to silence stories of a lurid extramarital sexual encounter in an elaborate “catch and kill” scheme carried out during his 2016 presidential campaign in a bid to influence the election.
A jury previously found that Donald Trump raped E. Jean Carroll. Trump described himself as ‘a political prisoner,’ a term he has been using about rioters charged for attacking the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Maryland Republican Senate nominee Larry Hogan, a former governor, released a statement defending the U.S. legal system and urging Americans to accept the result.
This historic event raises critical questions about the impact of this verdict on Trump’s political future, especially as he remains the presumptive Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election.
Trump’s campaign has indicated plans to portray him as a martyr, energizing his supporters by framing his legal battles as politically motivated attacks. Republican Party officials claimed that their fundraising systems were overwhelmed by contributors following the criminal conviction.
Shares of Trump Media, the parent company of the Truth Social platform traded under the ticker $DJT, fell 9% in trading after Trump, who owns 65% of the company, became a convicted felon. The nearly 10% stock price drop would amount to a $532 million decline in the value of Trump’s shares.
Public polling shows mixed reactions. According to a Marist University poll conducted for NPR and PBS NewsHour, 67% of registered voters say a guilty verdict would not change their vote, while 17% would be less likely to vote for him, and 15% would be more likely.
Political analysts suggest the guilty verdict could have marginal impacts, which may be significant in a closely contested election.
In a highly polarized climate, the majority of voters have made up their minds; however, even minor shifts could sway the election results. A survey by Quinnipiac University revealed that if convicted, 6% of Trump supporters might be less inclined to support him.
Trump has consistently maintained his innocence, labeling the trial and verdict as politically biased. Following the verdict, he declared, “The real verdict is going to be Nov. 5 by the people,” signaling his intent to leverage the conviction as a rallying cry for his base.
The reaction among Democrats has been varied. Some, like Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, have condemned Trump vehemently, while others, such as Senator Elizabeth Warren, have urged caution in politicizing the conviction.
President Joe Biden’s campaign has emphasized the importance of voting to keep Trump out of office, regardless of the legal outcomes.
As Trump awaits sentencing in July, the political landscape remains fluid. Early polling in the immediate aftermath of major events can be unreliable, and public opinion may shift as the reality of Trump’s legal troubles becomes more apparent.
In summary, while a guilty verdict places Trump in uncharted territory, its ultimate effect on his presidential ambitions remains uncertain.
His supporters’ unwavering loyalty, combined with the charged political climate, means that predicting the precise impact of the conviction is challenging.
Republican mega-donor and casino billionaire Miriam Adelson plans to help bankroll a massive super PAC for Trump to close his financial gap with Biden. Four years ago, Adelson and her late husband, Sheldon, donated $90 million to the organization, Preserve America.
However, the November 5th, 2024, election is still 158 days in the future and a lot can happen in that time… it remains to be seen if Americans coming to their senses is one of them.