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Trump slump hits stock price and Republican Party campaign

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) closed below their 2023 year-end level on Wednesday, continuing a significant decline ahead of the date when disgraced former President Donald Trump, the company’s majority owner, will have the option to sell his stake.

The stock, which had initially surged following the company’s merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) and its subsequent Nasdaq trading debut, has now fallen over 75% from its intraday peak.

Trump’s social media company has fallen so much that his onetime $6 billion stake is now worth about $2 billion but the stock price of Trump Media & Technology Group before he can sell his share of the company.

The stock is falling in advance of the expiration of a contractual lockup that has precluded Trump from selling any of his shares. But on Sept. 19, he and other early investors can start selling shares, which could further depress Trump Media’s stock price.

On Wednesday, Trump Media shares closed at $16.98 per share, marking a 6% decline on the day. This represents a sharp drop from its all-time high of $79.38 per share, reached in late March during its initial trading period.

The decline has significantly reduced the company’s market capitalization, wiping billions of dollars off its value. The recent slump follows a brief surge in mid-July, which occurred after the former president survived an assassination attempt. Despite this, the stock has continued to lose ground as the date approaches when Trump may begin selling his stake.

Trump Media & Technology Group, headquartered in Sarasota, Florida, is best known for creating the social media platform Truth Social.

The company is primarily owned by the disgraced former president, who has remained a prominent figure in American politics despite his controversial tenure in the White House and notable legal setbacks, including his loss in a massive New York state fraud case, two juries awarding his rape victim $93.3 million, and the first ever criminal conviction of a former US president.

On May 9, 2023, a jury of six men and three women found Trump liable for sexual abuse, battery and defamation. On January 26, 2024, another jury found Trump liable for $18.3 million in compensation for emotional and reputational harm, and $65 million in punitive damages, totaling $83.3 million.

In a July 19, 2023, memorandum opinion, Judge Lewis Kaplan clarified that despite the “far narrower definition” of rape under New York’s statute, as the term is understood “in common modern parlance”, and, citing definitions from the US Justice Department and the American Psychological Association, “the jury found that Mr. Trump in fact did exactly that”

The federal judge found that Trump did rape E. Jean Carroll as the term is understood “in common modern parlance”.

In a related development, a new Economist/YouGov poll released Wednesday shows Vice President Kamala Harris expanding her lead over Trump among Americans under the age of 45. Harris leads Trump by 22 percentage points, 56% to 34%, in this demographic.

The slide in the Trump Media share price has accelerated over the past few weeks as the presidential campaign has heated up and the Democratic nominee has overtaken the neoNazi Republican in most national polls.

Shares of Trump Media often have risen and fallen in tandem with investor perception of how Trump is doing in the presidential race.

However, Trump maintains an advantage among registered voters aged 65 and older, but notable Republicans are beginning to abandon his candidacy.

Former Rep. Liz Cheney, a vocal Trump critic and the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney announced during an appearance at Duke University that she is voting for Harris, the Democratic nominee.

Cheney, who sat on the House select committee that investigated the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, has declared that Trump betrayed his country.

In addition to Cheney, more than 200 former Republican staffers from the administrations of George W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney have publicly pledged their support for the Democratic nominee​, arguing that another Trump presidency is untenable.

While these endorsements represent a significant defection from traditional Republican circles, many other current and former GOP officials have either remained silent or said they will not support Trump in November.

Among registered voters overall, the poll shows Harris with a narrow lead, garnering 47% support to Trump’s 45%, a margin within the poll’s margin of error.

The survey also reveals that both Trump and Harris have strong bases of enthusiastic supporters, with approximately 68% of Trump supporters and 67% of Harris backers expressing high enthusiasm for their candidate.

In a broader context, the Hill/Decision Desk HQ national aggregate of polls shows Harris with 49.4% support compared to Trump’s 45.4%.

The upcoming election remains highly competitive, but there is a stark trend going against Trump, whose remaining indictments, significant financial setbacks, and imminent defeat on the ballot could be motivation for him to incite another violent episode that threatens to tear apart America’s Constitution.

An indictment filed Wednesday alleges a media company linked to six conservative influencers — including well-known personalities Tim Pool, Dave Rubin and Benny Johnson — was secretly funded by Russian state media employees to churn out English-language videos that were “often consistent” with the Kremlin’s “interest in amplifying U.S. domestic divisions in order to weaken U.S. opposition” to Russian interests, like its war in Ukraine.

Pool responded saying, “Never at any point did anyone other than I have full editorial control of the show and the contents of the show are often apolitical. Examples include discussing spirituality, dating, and videos games.”

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