In a recent opinion piece, former Representatives Charlie Dent (R-Pa) and Dan Glickman (D-Kan) raised alarm over the potential implications of Donald Trump’s proposed tariff plan, suggesting it could trigger an economic downturn comparable to the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Trump has criticized Kamala Harris’s economic policies, claiming they could lead to significant economic hardship. However, Dent and Glickman argue that Trump’s own tariffs—intended to protect American industries—could have the opposite effect, exacerbating economic instability.
The authors reference historical context, noting that the stock market crash of 1929 initiated the Great Depression, which deepened after the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was enacted in June 1930. This legislation raised tariffs on numerous goods, initially intended to safeguard U.S. producers but ultimately worsening the economic situation. They cite a drastic decline in global trade during the period, plummeting from $3 trillion to less than $1 trillion between 1929 and 1933.
The former congressmen outline several mechanisms by which Trump’s tariffs could replicate or exceed the detrimental effects of Smoot-Hawley:
Increased Cost of Living: Tariffs act as taxes on American importers, leading to higher prices for consumers.
Harm to Exports: Retaliatory tariffs from other countries could severely impact U.S. manufacturers and farmers.
Bank Failures: The economic stress from tariffs may exacerbate bank failures, particularly in agricultural sectors.
Reduced Domestic Consumption: Higher prices could lead consumers to cut back on spending, affecting sales for both imported and domestically produced goods.
The opinion piece further critiques Trump’s understanding of tariffs, suggesting he underestimates the potential for retaliation from trade partners. Dent and Glickman highlight that U.S. tariffs have historically been negotiated in reciprocal agreements, meaning unilateral increases could trigger corresponding actions from other nations, adversely affecting U.S. exports.
They caution that a proposed 200 percent tariff on John Deere machinery imported from Mexico could violate existing trade agreements, potentially prompting retaliatory tariffs that would harm American farmers—many of whom rely on Mexican markets for their goods.
While acknowledging the legitimacy of tariffs aimed at addressing unfair trade practices, the authors warn against broad, protective tariffs that could jeopardize American manufacturing. They argue that many essential imports serve as inputs for U.S. production, and increased tariffs could threaten jobs in industries reliant on those imports, such as confectionery manufacturing.
The opinion piece concludes by addressing a common misconception about tariffs: the burden ultimately falls on U.S. consumers, who pay higher prices for imported goods. The authors stress that Trump’s tariff strategy, which aims to reduce imports and generate substantial revenue, may ultimately fail to achieve its intended goals, as decreased imports would yield lower revenue than anticipated.
Glickman and Dent emphasize that Trump’s tariff plan poses a significant risk to American jobs and the country’s economic leadership on the global stage, urging caution in an era marked by economic uncertainty.
Dan Glickman served in Congress from 1979 to 1995 and as Secretary of Agriculture under President Clinton, while Charlie Dent represented Pennsylvania from 2005 to 2018. Their insights reflect a bipartisan concern regarding the potential repercussions of Trump’s economic policies.Congressmen Warn Trump’s Tariff Plan Could Lead to Economic Depression