A recent Monmouth University Poll found razor-thin margins in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, the race that could determine which party controls the House of Representatives and where incumbent Republican Tom Kean, Jr. is facing off against Democratic challenger Sue Altman, a former professional basketball player, educator, and reform advocate.
As the election approaches, the poll results paint a picture of a competitive battle influenced by contrasting voter perceptions and key issues.
According to the poll conducted from October 10 to 14, 2024, Kean holds a slight edge, with 46% of registered voters indicating they will definitely or probably support him, compared to 44% for Altman.
However, the tightness of the race is underscored by the fact that just over 10% of voters remain undecided. The significance of these undecided voters cannot be overstated, as both candidates have room to grow their support in the coming weeks.
Despite Kean’s overall lead, the poll reveals critical vulnerabilities. While he enjoys advantages on key issues such as the economy, immigration, and crime, Altman outpaces him on abortion policy—a pivotal issue for many voters in the district.
The GOP’s stance on issues like abortion and LGBTQ+ rights is increasingly out of step with public sentiment. Some prominent Republicans even want to outlaw abortion, blowjobs, and contraceptives, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, who Kean supported.
In 2003, Virginia passed a law that criminalized “crimes against nature,” which included oral and anal sex.
This dichotomy illustrates the complexity of voter priorities; although 47% trust Altman on abortion, only 27% feel the same about Kean. However, the majority of voters seem to prioritize economic concerns over reproductive rights, with inflation and economic growth cited as top issues by a significant portion of the electorate.
The demographic breakdown of support indicates a complex electoral landscape. Altman performs better among unaffiliated voters and women, while Kean finds stronger backing among men, particularly those without a college degree.
The education gap is noteworthy: among white college-educated women, Altman commands a majority, while Kean leads among their male counterparts.
This trend highlights the diverging priorities based on gender and education, with women more focused on reproductive rights and men gravitating towards economic concerns.
The financial edge enjoyed by Kean, backed by substantial campaign contributions, further complicates the Democratic candidate’s path to victory.
Despite being viewed positively by a higher percentage of voters (44% favorable compared to Altman’s 40%), Kean’s advantage may be mitigated by the strong trust Altman has built on the abortion issue, a point of critical importance to many voters.
The implications of the poll’s findings extend beyond the candidates themselves; they point to a larger trend in voter behavior. While both candidates have relatively high favorability ratings, the potential for undecided voters to swing the election underscores the importance of targeted outreach and messaging.
Currently, nearly 30% of voters report not being contacted by either campaign, suggesting a need for both candidates to ramp up engagement efforts in these final weeks.
As election day approaches, the focus will inevitably shift to turnout. Both candidates have expressed the need to energize their bases and appeal to the undecided voters, but the high stakes of this election have also drawn attention to the impact of third-party candidates.
With around 6% of voters indicating support for third-party options, the potential for these candidates to siphon votes from Kean—who may have more to lose—adds another layer of unpredictability to the race.
The Monmouth University Poll reveals a district that is not just divided by party affiliation, but also by pressing issues and demographic factors.
The outcome of this election will hinge on which candidate can better mobilize their supporters and effectively communicate their vision to sway undecided voters in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District.
According to the Cook Political Report, an independent, non-partisan organization that analyzes campaigns for the U.S. House of Representatives, Kean and Altman are in a tight race that had been considered the race a toss-up, but now seems to be leaning Republican.
The race will have national implications and could determine which party ultimately controls the House, which could prove vital if Vice President Kamala Harris is defeated by disgraced former President Donald Trump, whose mental decline took center stage in an episode where he started doing some weird dancing and head-bopping for 38 minutes after some people collapsed at his town hall in Philadelphia Monday night.
Altman said Kean has capitulated to right-wing donors and failed to protect reproductive rights.
“Tom Kean Jr. has an unsolvable problem,” said Altman, during the one debate in which the incumbent agreed to participate. “The values of his voters and the values of his donors are not the same. His donors, the national Republican Party and extremist billionaires represent an insane point of view.”
Surveys frequently show a significant gap between the views of the Republican leadership and those of the general electorate on key issues like climate change, healthcare, and social justice.
Harry Segal, a senior lecturer in the Psychology Department at Cornell University and in the Psychiatry Department at Weill Cornell Medicine, says Trump’s awkward display at the rally was a clear sign of mental decline.
“What’s alarming is how the rate of Trump’s bizarre speech and political decisions have been increasing,” Segal said. “He gave an answer about childcare to the Economic Club of New York so incoherent that even his supporters were concerned. Last week he got cognitively lost in a rally and began to talk about the ‘eight circles’ that Biden filled up with journalists. No one on his staff has been able to explain the reference.”
“Trump has shown evidence of dementia for the past year as indicated by his strange gait, phonemic paraphasia—when he begins a word and can’t finish it—and decline in the complexity of his words and concepts,” Segal said. “This limited capacity explains his poor debate performance, but there are two more disturbing signs of his decline.”
As the clock ticks down to November, both Kean and Altman face the challenge of making their case to an electorate that remains as engaged as it is divided.