The Office of the Director of National Intelligence expects foreign actors to conduct influence operations denigrating U.S. democracy, by calling into question the results of the election through the inauguration of either Vice President Kamala Harris or disgraced former President Donald Trump, according to a declassified Intelligence Community assessment.
“Foreign actors — particularly Russia, Iran, and China — remain intent on fanning divisive narratives to divide Americans and undermine Americans’ confidence in the U.S. democratic system consistent with what they perceive to be in their interests, even as their tactics continue to evolve,” said the ODNI in an election security update issued 15 days ahead of the U.S. presidential balloting.
The intelligence community (IC) warned that foreign actors, particularly Russia, Iran, and China, remain committed to sowing division among Americans and undermining confidence in the democratic process.
These nations, according to the ODNI, view these actions as aligned with their strategic interests.
Their methods are expected to intensify as Election Day approaches, with social media—much of it influenced or generated by AI—being the primary platform for spreading disinformation.
Russia, in particular, has been identified as using disinformation campaigns, including fabricating content to discredit the Democratic vice-presidential candidate. Electronic media reviewed by the IC indicated manipulation tactics consistent with past Russian interference efforts.
The IC clarified, however, that there is no current evidence suggesting that any foreign actor intends to interfere with election administration processes at a scale that could influence the overall result of the presidential election.
Beyond Election Day, the IC anticipates foreign influence operations will continue up to the presidential inauguration. These campaigns are expected to target U.S. democratic institutions, aiming to challenge the legitimacy of the election results.
Russia, for instance, is likely to promote protests regardless of the election outcome, with a potentially more aggressive response if Democratic nominee Harris defeats the Republican contender, Trump.
Iran and China are also expected to exploit post-election tensions, with Tehran possibly seeking to incite violence as it did following the 2020 election.
The ODNI report also raised concerns about the potential for foreign actors to encourage violent protests, referencing past examples such as the 2020 incident when Iranian hackers posed as far-right activists to intimidate voters.
As election workers across the country brace for potential security risks, the intelligence community is monitoring for any attempts to disrupt the post-election period, particularly through online disinformation and attempts to exploit election certification processes.
Despite the ongoing threats, the IC remains confident in the security of U.S. election systems and emphasizes that foreign actors would be unlikely to manipulate voting processes on a significant scale without detection.
Securing election infrastructure is a partnership between federal, state, and local government and private sector entities.
The failure of the previous administration to effectively retaliate against Russia’s malign influence was rooted in the personal motivations of then-President Trump.
Despite consistent intelligence assessments affirming Russian interference in the 2016 election, Trump’s administration hesitated to respond forcefully largely because of Trump’s deep resentment over the public claims of his campaign’s involvement.
Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation culminated in numerous indictments of individuals linked to Trump’s campaign and Russia’s interference.
The investigation, which revealed extensive efforts by Russian actors to influence the election in Trump’s favor, left the president defensive.
Trump frequently dismissed the intelligence community’s findings, framing them as politically motivated attacks aimed at undermining his legitimacy.
His preoccupation with the narrative that Russian interference helped secure his election victory contributed to his administration’s muted response, as he sought to downplay any association with Moscow’s actions.
His lack of decisive retaliation emboldened Russia to continue its malign activities.
Intelligence officials have noted that the Kremlin likely interpreted Trump’s hesitance as a green light to pursue further interference.
In contrast to previous administrations that took a stronger stance on foreign meddling, Trump’s approach left the United States vulnerable to continued disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks from Russia, weakening the nation’s ability to counter these threats effectively.
To combat election interference, the Department of Homeland Security collaborates with federal departments and agencies, state and local government, election officials, and other partners such as the National Association of Secretaries of State, National Association of State Election Directors, International Association of Government Officials, National Association of Election Officials and the Elections Assistance Commission.
Foreign influence operations—which include covert actions by foreign governments to influence U.S. political sentiment or public discourse—are not a new problem. But the interconnectedness of the modern world, combined with the anonymity of the Internet, have changed the nature of the threat and how the FBI and its partners must address it. The goal of these foreign influence operations directed against the United States is to spread disinformation, sow discord, and, ultimately, undermine confidence in our democratic institutions and values.
The FBI is the lead federal agency responsible for investigating foreign influence operations. In the fall of 2017, Director Christopher Wray established the Foreign Influence Task Force (FITF) to identify and counteract malign foreign influence operations targeting the United States.
Foreign influence operations have taken many forms and used many tactics over the years. Most widely reported these days are attempts by adversaries—hoping to reach a wide swath of Americans covertly from outside the United States—to use false personas and fabricated stories on social media platforms to discredit U.S. individuals and institutions.