With less than six months remaining until New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial primaries, a new poll reveals that a majority of voters remain undecided about who they will support in both the Democratic and Republican races.
The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey, conducted between January 18-21, 2025, shows significant uncertainty among the electorate, with 56% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans yet to make up their minds.
In the Democratic Primary, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop trailed behind five contenders who seem locked in a virtual tie.
Rep. Mikie Sherrill, New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Rep. Josh Gottheimer and former State Senate President Stephen Sweeney fall within the poll’s margin of error with ten to seven percent each.
Despite the early positioning, 55% of Democrats remain undecided, indicating potential for shifts as the primary approaches.
On the Republican side, 2021 gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli emerges as the early frontrunner with 26% support. Radio host Bill Spadea is a distant second at 13%, with no other Republican candidate reaching 5%. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, notes that Ciattarelli’s higher name recognition may give him a significant advantage as the primary nears.
“The race on the Democratic side is more fragmented, with several potential contenders, while the Republican field has a clearer leader,” said Kimball. “However, the high percentage of undecided voters leaves room for any candidate to consolidate support.”
Regarding the current state of New Jersey’s politics, the poll finds mixed approval ratings for key figures. Governor Phil Murphy has a 44% favorable rating, compared to 42% unfavorable, with 12% neutral. Murphy’s popularity is notably higher among women (48%) than men (40%). Among political affiliations, Democrats are more supportive of Murphy, with 75% approving, while independents (27%) and Republicans (14%) show much less favorable views.
President Donald Trump maintains a narrow 48% favorable rating in New Jersey, with 46% expressing an unfavorable view, and 6% neutral. Trump’s approval rating contrasts with Murphy’s, showing a more evenly divided sentiment among voters.
The poll also highlights economic concerns as the dominant issue for voters. A significant majority, 63%, feel their family’s income is falling behind the rising cost of living, with women particularly more likely (67%) to express this sentiment compared to men (58%). This dissatisfaction with the economy could influence voter behavior in the upcoming gubernatorial election.
Regarding state policy issues, the survey shows notable opposition to New York City’s congestion pricing plan, which charges vehicles entering Manhattan. A majority of New Jersey voters (57%) oppose the plan, with the highest opposition coming from older voters (62% in their 50s and 73% in their 60s) and Republicans (64%).
In contrast, state-level education policies seem to gain more support, including a proposed ban on cellphones in public K-12 classrooms, which 64% of voters favor. Additionally, a proposal to mandate free kindergarten in all New Jersey public and charter schools garners broad support, with 74% in favor, including 86% of Democrats and 67% of Republicans.
While voters remain split on the direction of the state—50% say it is on the right track, and 50% disagree—economic issues like housing affordability (21%) and immigration (8%) also factor into the broader conversation.
The poll surveyed 1,000 New Jersey registered voters, with credibility intervals of +/-3 percentage points for the overall sample. Results within subsets, such as those by age, gender, or party, carry higher margins of error due to smaller sample sizes. The full results, including detailed cross-tabulations, are available through Emerson College’s official polling report.
With the primary elections fast approaching, the evolving dynamics of both the Democratic and Republican races indicate that New Jersey’s gubernatorial contest is still wide open.