Here’s how the Democrats running to be governor say they’ll make New Jersey more affordable

by Nikita Biryukov, New Jersey Monitor

Affordability is perennially a top issue in New Jersey elections, and the six Democrats hoping to succeed Gov. Phil Murphy all have plans to bring down costs here in the Garden State.

The Democrats, who are vying on June 10 for their party’s nod for governor in November, have plans to lower costs that range from broad tax code changes that would place more of the burden on wealthy residents to expanded tax credits for families and low-income individuals to significant tax cuts for property owners.

New Jersey’s cost of living and tax burdens could well decide the race for the state’s next governor. An Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll of New Jersey voters from earlier this month found 45% of respondents said the economy (including taxes) is the No. 1 issue facing New Jersey, followed by housing affordability at 12%.

It remains to be seen how voters will judge Democrats’ affordability promises after eight years under a Democratic governor. Neither party has won three successive terms as New Jersey’s governor since 1961.

“If you’re unhappy with the way things are going, you vote for a change. If you’re happy with the way things are going, you vote for whoever’s in charge,” said Dan Cassino, the director of the Fairleigh Dickinson University poll. “So it’s entirely plausible that voters are going to go to that voting booth and say, ‘Well, New Jersey’s unaffordable. We need a change. Let’s vote for a Republican.’”

Newark Mayor Ras Baraka

Tax reform features heavily in Newark Mayor Ras Baraka’s affordability plan. The progressive Democrat has proposed taxing the first $90,000 of income residents earn at 1.4%, the rate currently charged on the first $20,000 earned in a year, and reducing rates for those making less than $500,000.

Under Baraka’s plan, marginal rates would fall to 6.37% for those making at least $152,000, to 7.5% for those making at least $350,000, 9% for those with incomes of at least $500,000, and 10% for residents who earn at least $750,000.

Those who make at least $1 million would pay more under Baraka’s plan, and the state’s top earners would pay the highest state income tax rates in the nation.

Marginal rates for individuals making more than $1 million annually would range from 11% to 14% under Baraka’s plan, with the highest bracket kicking in after $10 million in annual earnings.

California’s top state income tax bracket, the highest in the nation, taxes earnings above $1 million at 13.3%.

Baraka says these changes would boost annual collections by about $2 billion.

Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop

Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop also favors higher taxes for high earners.

Fulop would create new tax brackets for those earning $2 million, $5 million, and $10 million per year. Fulop’s affordability plan does not state the levels of the new brackets, but a New Jersey Policy Perspective report cited by his plan recommends they be set to 12%, 13%, and 14%, respectively. The think tank’s report, published in November, says the changes would generate $1.2 billion annually.

Fulop says he would like to raise the state’s earned income tax credit — which offsets tax burdens for very low-income residents with credits worth between $253 and $3,132 in 2024 — to 50% of the federal benefit, from 40%.

He’s also proposed changes to Stay NJ, a new state program that aims to halve senior citizens’ property taxes. Fulop would reduce the income limit for Stay NJ participants from $500,000 to $150,000 and make the program’s credits flat and phased-in rather than based on a resident’s property tax bill.Josh Gottheimer (Photo by Danielle Richards for New Jersey Monitor)

Josh Gottheimer

Tax cuts lie at the center of Rep. Josh Gottheimer’s affordability agenda. The five-term congressman’s cost-lowering plan centers around a promise to reduce state and local taxes by a combined $5.9 billion through a raft of cuts, credits, and rebates. The state’s average property tax bill in 2024 was $10,095

Gottheimer proposes requiring local governments to cut property taxes to receive an equal amount of state income tax revenue, echoing a Republican school-funding proposal from years past.

Gottheimer’s version proposes to move roughly $4.7 billion in annual costs from local ledgers to the state budget. Because property taxes are set locally, municipalities would have to act to lower them, and matching state funds would only be offered to those that undertake efficiency reviews that Gottheimer says would pay for his tax cuts.

He says those reviews would cut 5% of state and local spending — $2.9 billion at the state level and $2.4 billion locally — by merging departments, unifying procurement offices, and even removing light bulbs from vending machines.

Local governments billed a little less than $35.7 billion in property taxes last year, according to state records, meaning that across-the-board 5% cuts would have produced close to $700 million less than the $2.9 billion advertised by Gottheimer’s plan.

The congressman’s property and income tax credits for renters, those with dependents, retirees, and businesses would reduce state revenue by $1.2 billion each year.

Mikie Sherrill

Rep. Mikie Sherrill has eschewed proposing broad changes to the tax code, though she favors increasing award amounts for the state’s child tax credit — a per-child refundable tax credit worth between $1,000 and $200, depending on income — and its earned income tax credit.

She would also create a caregiver assistance tax credit for residents caring for elderly family members. Sherrill has not proposed specific levels for any of the tax credits.

The congresswoman also proposes the return of a sales tax holiday for back-to-school items. The state implemented that in 2023 but halted it last year as the state’s budgeting began to tighten.Sean Spiller (Edwin J. Torres/NJ Governor’s Office)

Sean Spiller

New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller’s policy platform places little focus on affordability, at least in the realm of taxes.

He says he would seek to expand the child and dependent care tax credits, which offset a portion of taxpayers’ child care expenses, and boost other assistance for child care.

The state’s child and dependent care tax credit is set as a percentage of the federal benefit — $3,000 for a single filer or $6,000 for joint filers.

At present, New Jersey’s child and dependent care tax credit offers between 50% and 10% of the federal benefit, with those earning less than $30,000 receiving the largest credits and those making between $120,000 and $150,000 the smallest.

Steve Sweeney

Former state Sen. Steve Sweeney’s affordability plan focuses on seniors.

He has proposed a massive expansion of state income tax exclusions for retirees that would entirely eliminate all income tax for residents 65 and older with a household income of no more than $250,000.

At present, residents 62 and over who make no more than $100,000 can exclude from their income taxes large portions of their pension income — $100,000 for joint filers, $75,000 for single filers, and $50,000 for married individuals filing separate returns. 

Those with incomes between $100,000 and $150,000 can exclude a percentage of their pension income from their taxes.

A separate process calculates exclusions for other types of retirement income, and New Jersey does not tax social security benefits. It’s not clear how much Sweeney’s exclusion proposal would cost the state in foregone revenue.

Sweeney also proposes lowering income limits for Stay NJ from $500,000 to $250,000.

That program, due to issue its first half-year benefit in the fiscal year that begins July 1, is expected to cost at least $1.2 billion annually under current law. It’s not clear how much money the state would save by halving the program’s income limit.