by Sophie Nieto-Munoz, New Jersey Monitor
Rep. Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic nominee for governor, is entering the general election season with a double-digit lead over her Republican rival, Jack Ciattarelli, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton poll released Wednesday.
The first major gubernatorial poll since the June primary shows Sherrill with 51% of voters’ support, and Ciattarelli with 31%, if the Nov. 4 election were held today.
Including voters who lean toward a candidate, her lead grows by one point. About 3% say they’d vote neither, and 6% are uncertain.
While Sherrill holds a comfortable edge, the poll also suggests economic issues could take front and center to narrow the race as November approaches. Pollsters also found “an intense national political landscape” will have an impact yet to be seen, and that this gap will likely shrink in the next several months.
“Early polling on the governor’s race should serve as a baseline or a barometer of how voters are feeling in the moment — not as some crystal ball predicting the future four months from now,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. “A lot can happen between now and November.”
She said 2021 showed how much a race can shift in just a few months. Ciattarelli, who was also the GOP gubernatorial candidate then, narrowly lost to Gov. Phil Murphy in a closer-than-expected race. Polls had showed Murphy ahead by double digits, but he only won by about three points.
President Donald Trump remains a looming presence in the race, with 52% of voters polled saying Trump plays a “major factor” in their vote, Wednesday’s poll showed.
and President Donald Trump.
Nearly three-quarters of Sherrill supporters cited Trump as a top concern, compared to 27% of Ciattarelli backers.
Koning noted that while Trump’s endorsement of Ciattarelli may have boosted him in the primaries, these numbers are “an early sign” that the endorsement could play out differently in the general election.
“Trump’s influence appears to be more of a benefit to Sherrill right now,” said Koning.
With four months to go, both campaigns are battling for the bloc of independent voters that could sway the race. Sherrill, whose name recognition and favorability has surged since April, has been seen as the more moderate candidate between the two, according to the poll.
Ciattarelli, a former assemblyman, still commands strong enthusiasm from the Republican base, with about 80% of his supporters saying they are “very” or “somewhat enthusiastic.” But Sherrill outpaces him nearly 2-to-1 on health care, education and infrastructure.
She loses her edge on taxes and affordability, the two biggest issues New Jerseyans face, the poll states. On handling taxes, Sherrill leads 39% to Ciattarelli’s 34%, and on cost of living, 45% say they’d trust Sherrill more while 29% support Ciattarelli.
Voters also are split on who would handle crime and safety better — 39% support Sherrill compared to 37% backing Ciattarelli.
Ciattarelli’s team took to social media to blast the poll. Chris Russell, a political strategist for the candidate, called it “pure fantasy” and compared it to 2021 polls that they said incorrectly predicted the gubernatorial results. He also suggested the data contains inaccurate calculations and “methodological malpractice,” saying Kamala Harris and Murphy supporters were overrepresented.
Koning said that claim is “inaccurate and incorrect.”
“Polls are not meant to be crystal balls but rather snapshots in time of current public opinion and are therefore not intended to predict election outcomes, especially this far out. Our scientifically grounded methodology follows best practices in the survey research industry,” she said in a statement Wednesday evening.
Seventy-eight percent of voters said they will “definitely” cast ballots in the November election, and another 15% said “probably.”
Pollsters surveyed 621 adults, including 579 registered voters, in mid-June. The poll has a margin of error of 5.4 percentage points. <a href="https://newjerseymonitor.com/subscribe"> <div class="subscribeShortcodeContainer"> <div class="subscribeTextContainer"> <i></i> <p>GET THE MORNING HEADLINES.</p> </div> <div class="subscribeButtonContainer"> SUBSCRIBE </div> </div> </a> <style> figure, .tipContainer, .socContainer, .subscribeShortcodeContainer, .donateContainer {display:none !important;} .youtubeContainer { position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%; padding-top: 30px; height: 0; overflow: hidden; margin-bottom:12px; } .youtubeContainer iframe, .video-container object, .video-container embed { position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100% !important; height: 100%; margin: 12px 0px !important; } .newsroomSidebar {width:35%;max-width:35%;padding:10px;border-top:solid 2px black;background-color:#d3d3d3;float:right;margin-left:50px;} .snrsInfoboxSubContainer {padding:10px;border-top:solid 2px black;background-color:#d3d3d3;} .halfwidth {float:right;width:50%;max-width:50%;} .indent2Container {margin-left: 1em;margin-bottom:1em; border-left: solid 1px black;padding-left: 2em;} @media only screen and (max-width: 600px) {.newsroomSidebar {max-width:95%;width:95%;margin-left:4%} .halfwidth {float:none;width:100%;max-width:100%;} }</style> <p><a href="https://newjerseymonitor.com">New Jersey Monitor</a> is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. New Jersey Monitor maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Terrence T. McDonald for questions: <a href="mailto:info@newjerseymonitor.com">info@newjerseymonitor.com</a>.</p>
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