In the final stretch of the race to become New Jersey’s next governor, Blue Dog Democrat Rebecca Michelle ‘Mikie’ Sherrill holds a seven-point lead over Republican Giacchino Michael ‘Jack’ Ciattarelli, according to a new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll.
The survey reveals a contest where personal biographies are a rare source of bipartisan goodwill, even as the candidates are locked in a battle defined by sharp ideological contrasts and increasingly personal attacks.
With the November 4 election looming, the poll of 814 likely voters finds Sherrill leading 52 percent to 45 percent, with just 3 percent of voters remaining undecided. This solidifies a race that, despite the sound and fury of recent weeks, has changed little in its fundamental structure since the summer.
“So far, this race is going exactly as expected,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University and the executive director of the FDU Poll. “Undecided voters have almost all made up their minds, and partisans have put aside any misgivings and lined up behind their candidates.”
The poll uncovered a curious political arithmetic when it comes to voter perceptions. On a scale of ideology where 1 is very conservative and 10 is very liberal, Sherrill is rated at 7.6, while Ciattarelli sits at 2.6. The notable finding, however, is that while Democrats see Sherrill as relatively moderate (6.8), there is broad consensus that Ciattarelli is very conservative—a view shared even by members of his own party, who rate him at 2.8.
“Generally, people think their opponent is way more extreme than their own candidate, but that’s just not happening here,” Cassino noted. “Democrats think Sherrill is much more moderate than Republicans do, but basically everyone agrees that Ciattarelli is very conservative.”
In a political era often defined by bitter division, the personal stories of the two candidates have emerged as a powerful, cross-partisan currency. Sherrill’s background as a Navy helicopter pilot and a mother of four is viewed overwhelmingly favorably by voters across the political spectrum. Similarly, Ciattarelli’s status as a lifelong New Jersey resident and a father of four also earns him strong positive marks, even from a significant number of Democrats.
The same cannot be said for their policy proposals. Ciattarelli’s support for Trump administration programs, including tariffs, is his least popular stance, with an overall net favorability of -18 percent. His opposition to wind farms off the Jersey Shore and his call for a state-level Department of Government Efficiency also garner negative overall ratings.
Sherrill’s policy ideas fare somewhat better. Her most popular proposal—freezing energy bills—enjoys a net favorability of +39 percent and is only mildly disliked by Republicans. Her pledges to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution and to fight Trump administration programs also receive net positive ratings, buoyed by strong Democratic support.
“There are limits to partisanship—voters like the biographies of both of these candidates,” observed Cassino. “While there’s not much agreement on policies, there are some proposals, like rooting out waste and fraud, or freezing energy bills, that have some support across the political spectrum.”
This poll, conducted between October 9 and 15, comes after a period of intense campaign tumult, including a debate where Sherrill accused Ciattarelli of having “killed tens of thousands of people” through the work of a medical publishing company he once owned—a charge for which she provided no direct evidence and which Ciattarelli has vehemently denied. The Ciattarelli campaign, in turn, has faced questions about its acquisition of Sherrill’s unredacted Naval Academy records, which sparked a federal investigation into their improper release.
Yet, despite these explosive personal attacks and a national political environment that has proven challenging for Democrats, the race in New Jersey appears remarkably stable. Sherrill maintains her lead, Ciattarelli is firmly within striking distance, and the voters, for now, seem to have made up their minds—setting the stage for a final, frantic push to the finish.