After an anemic report for July, President Donald Trump attacked the Bureau of Labor Statistics and then fired Commissioner Erika McEntarfer.
Official government data released Tuesday painted a picture of a remarkably resilient U.S. economy, with growth accelerating to a 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter.
Yet, this robust headline figure is being met with profound skepticism from some quarters, who argue it masks a starkly different reality felt by many American households.
Americans are closing out the year with a bleak view of the country, its leaders, and the economy, but the Commerce Department report showed the $30 trillion economy outperforming expectations, fueled by strong consumer spending and a surge in military outlays.
“It shows an economy that is mostly solid, actually still firing on most cylinders if not all cylinders,” said Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. He noted, however, that “most of the strength is coming from wealthier households.”
This observation cuts to the heart of a widening disconnect.
While the gross domestic product figure suggests vigor, measures of consumer sentiment remain deeply negative, affordability concerns are widespread, and wage growth for lower-income workers is slowing.
Disposable personal income, after adjusting for taxes and inflation, was flat in the quarter, indicating that rising prices continue to erode purchasing power.
Many economists believe the growth spurt may be short-lived, with the extended government shutdown dragging on the economy in the fourth quarter, as three-quarters of Americans, fatigued by stubbornly high inflation, are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country.
Lisa McCormick, a New Jersey anti-establishment Democrat and advocate for progressive economic policy, expressed sharp reservations about the report’s celebratory tone.
“These numbers are a patina on a corroding structure,” McCormick said. “When you have a government that fires the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics for delivering a jobs report it didn’t like, every subsequent figure must be viewed with a truckload of salt.”
McCormick referenced Trump’s August dismissal of McEntarfer as BLS commissioner, which came hours after the agency released employment data showing a hiring slowdown. Trump claimed the numbers were “rigged.”
That move followed a pattern of the administration attacking statistical agencies when data conflicted with its narrative.
“America is a nation where economic hardship is far more common than our traditional ledgers admit,” McCormick said. “Most of our elected officials are dedicated to serving the plutocratic parasites who are destroying the world.”
The GDP report itself was delayed by the historic federal government shutdown in October, which analysts say complicates data collection and seasonal adjustments.
Furthermore, economists note the quarterly figures are being heavily distorted by volatile swings in trade flows, a direct result of the administration’s imposition and subsequent adjustment of sweeping global tariffs.
“Even as consumption takes the reins back from investment, the economy maintains considerable momentum,” said Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics.
Yet a significant portion of that consumption is driven by affluent Americans continuing to spend on travel, dining, and recreation, even as lower-income families grapple with higher costs for essentials.
The report also revealed a sharp cooling in business investment, a sector recently supercharged by spending on artificial intelligence. This raises questions about the sustainability of a tech-driven boom that some analysts fear is becoming speculative.
Critics argue the GDP metric itself is an increasingly flawed barometer of national well-being.
They contend it can be inflated by government spending and speculative investment while obscuring industrial decline, rising inequality, and household financial strain. The widening wage gap underscores the point: data from the Economic Policy Institute shows the 90th percentile wage sits at $62.75 an hour, while the median is $24.87 and the 10th percentile is $14.26.
The administration heralded the bogus growth figures.
The White House Council of Economic Advisers stated the data showed strong consumer confidence and an “export boom.”
However, the administration’s own policy choices are cited by many economists as the primary risks to the expansion.
A recent survey of 159 economists by the National Association for Business Economics found overwhelming majorities believe Trump’s tariffs will slow growth and increase inflation, and that his crackdown on immigration will hamper the labor supply.
“The consensus is that we are navigating by a distorted map,” McCormick said. “You can paint a number on the bow of the ship, but if the hull is taking on water and the passengers are uneasy, claiming victory is a dangerous fantasy. The true test isn’t a quarterly figure, but whether working people believe their lives are improving.”
With the Social Security Trust Fund projected to face insolvency in the third quarter of 2032 and health insurance premiums doubling as subsidies expire, economists forecast slower growth ahead.
McCormick said the nation is in for a bumpy ride once Trump’s fiction crashes into reality.
For now, the nation is left with two competing stories: one told by the official aggregate data, and another told by the mood of its people.
The gross domestic product of the United States in 2025 will be about $31 trillion. U.S. imports are likely to total just under $4 trillion by the end of the year, as the government collected about $200 billion in tariff revenue for the fiscal year ending in September; tariffs have generated about $25 billion a month since April.