The Strait of Hormuz clenched shut again on Saturday, Iran’s military announcing it had reimposed “strict control” over the world’s most vital waterway just one day after Tehran declared it open.
The whiplash reversal came with gunfire.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard gunboats opened fire on a tanker about 20 nautical miles northeast of Oman, the British navy’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported. A U.S. defense official told Axios that at least three attacks on commercial ships occurred on Saturday. At least one vessel was hit. No injuries were reported.
The distress call captured the moment’s absurd terror. A crew member aboard one targeted tanker radioed Iranian authorities for help while under fire, claiming his vessel had received clearance to enter the strait. He asked permission to turn back. The dispatcher said they were turning around anyway.
Two of the ships fired upon were Indian vessels, according to TankerTrackers.com. One carried 2 million barrels of Iraqi oil.
Iran’s military statement, carried by the semi-official Fars news agency, accused the United States of “banditry and maritime piracy under the guise of a so-called blockade.”
The reason for closing the strait, the military said, was simple: The United States refuses to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports.
“As long as the United States does not agree to the complete freedom of navigation for vessels,” the military official said, “the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will remain tightly controlled and in its previous state.”
All of this unfolded hours after President Donald Trump told reporters he expected a deal with Iran “in a day or two.” On Friday, Iran’s foreign minister had called the strait “completely open,” and Trump declared a breakthrough in negotiations toward a permanent cease-fire.
“They can’t blackmail us,” Trump said Saturday, even as his administration acknowledged that Tehran “wanted to close up the strait again.”
The president said the United States would maintain its blockade of Iranian ports “until the agreement gets signed.” Iran’s response was swift and unmistakable: no deal, no passage.
The war began in late February, when the United States and Israel launched unprovoked attacks on Iran. Since then, Iran has mined the strait, attacked tankers, and choked global energy supplies.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces began implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 a.m. ET, in accordance with the President’s proclamation.
Before the war, roughly 100 ships transited the strait daily, carrying one-fifth of the world’s oil. Traffic has since plummeted more than 90 percent, according to ship tracking data. Even the few vessels now granted passage must hug Iran’s coastline and pay tolls.
The confusion is by design. Iran wants uncertainty. The United States wants pressure. And the world’s shipping companies, insurers, and energy markets are trapped in the middle, trying to decode contradictory statements from both capitals while their vessels risk live fire.
Oil markets, closed for the weekend, will reopen Monday to a landscape that changed twice in 24 hours. Brent futures tumbled to about $90 a barrel on Friday on hopes of reopening. But the spot price that refiners actually pay stood at nearly $99. The gap between those two numbers tells the story of a market that does not know what to believe.
The longer-term damage defies quick repair. The International Energy Agency says more than 80 energy facilities in the region have been damaged, many severely. An estimated 10 percent of the global oil supply remains offline. Fatih Birol, the agency’s executive director, said this week that restoring output to prewar levels could take up to two years.
A temporary cease-fire in Lebanon went into effect Friday, sending thousands of displaced families home. Iran had demanded that truce as a condition for broader talks. But the connection between Lebanon’s relief and the strait’s closure is now painfully clear: Tehran gave ground in one place only to dig in elsewhere.
U.S. Central Command said 23 ships have complied with American instructions to turn around since the blockade began earlier this week. It was unclear how many received those instructions after Iran declared the strait closed again.
What remains clear is this: The Strait of Hormuz is not a valve that can be opened and closed without consequence. Each reversal, each shot across a bow, each contradictory statement from Tehran and Washington erodes whatever trust might have existed for a lasting agreement.
Spencer Dale, the former chief economist at BP, put it plainly. Producers who have shut their wells will not restart them, he said, “until people have confidence that you have a lasting agreement.”
Saturday offered no such confidence. Only gunfire, confusion, and a strait locked tight.