The checks that nearly 70 million Americans count on to keep food on the table and the lights on are now on a collision course with catastrophe.
Social Security’s trust fund will run dry by the end of 2032, according to the annual financial report released Tuesday by the program’s trustees. That is three months earlier than projected last year.
When the money runs out, incoming payroll taxes would cover only 78 percent of benefits — an average cut of 22 percent for every retiree, disabled worker and surviving family member who depends on the system.
The clock is ticking. Congress has done next to nothing.
A progressive Democrat from New Jersey, Lisa McCormick, put it in terms that cut through the Washington fog.
McCormick pointed to LeBron James, who makes roughly $140 million a year to play basketball and from a massive off-court portfolio.
Under the current system, James stops paying Social Security taxes during the first quarter of the first game of the season. For the remaining 81 games, plus the playoffs, plus baseball season, football season, and hockey season, he pays nothing more,” McCormick said. “Elon Musk wants a $1 trillion salary, and he will not pay a penny to support the nation’s retirement system on $999 billion-999 million-800 thousand of that money.”
The math is not complicated. Most American workers pay the Social Security payroll tax on every dollar they earn, from the first penny. But once a worker’s income exceeds $190,000 this year, the tax stops. That means a hedge fund manager making $50 million pays the same dollar amount into the system as someone making $190,000.
McCormick’s fix is simple: scrap the cap. Make the wealthy pay the same rate as everybody else. She says that would not only keep Social Security solvent indefinitely but could also lower the retirement age and increase benefits.
President Donald Trump has promised to protect Social Security. But he has offered no realistic plan. Instead, last month he claimed that rooting out fraud — including phantom payments to people listed as 115 or 125 years old — would save the program without any other changes.
Those claims have been repeatedly debunked, but Trump seems to be operating outside of reality.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, suggested that he would release a plan next year to address what he called ballooning entitlement spending.
“The reason we are in trouble is because over 74 percent of federal spending is on autopilot, mandatory spending,” said Johnson. “That’s your entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and then things like Social Security. They have to be adjusted and fixed.”
McCormick sees the problem differently. She says the shortfall is not because Americans are getting too much. It is because the richest people are paying too little.
About 70 million Americans rely on Social Security. For most elderly people, it is the majority of their income. The average monthly check is just over $1,500 — hardly a luxury.
The trustees’ report also blamed Trump’s tax cuts and immigration policies for accelerating the shortfall. Lower fertility rates and reduced immigration mean fewer workers paying into the system for each person drawing benefits.
McCormick first proposed scrapping the cap in 2018. At the time, the projected depletion date was 2034. It has now moved up two years. She has been calling for congressional action ever since. She says the silence from Washington has been deafening.
“American workers pay into Social Security when they make their very first dollar, but the richest people stop paying once they hit $190,000,” McCormick said. “The super-wealthy can absorb the tax better than people who work for a living and now contribute a share of every dollar they make.”
The Social Security trustees — including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — urged lawmakers to address the shortfalls “sooner rather than later.”
According to Social Security’s trustees, the past year brought some notable changes, including a lower national fertility rate, reduced immigration, and the significant impact of President Donald Trump’s signature tax law, which extended his first-term tax cuts and added a deduction for seniors.
Some experts believe that the Trump administration’s aggressive stance on immigration may not be fully reflected in the report, which assumes lawful immigration at levels similar to those during the Biden administration and only a very short-term reduction in “temporary and unlawfully present” immigrants.
That “would make the Social Security picture even worse, because immigrant workers strengthen Social Security’s finances by contributing to the trust fund through payroll taxes,” said Kathleen Romig, a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a research group.
AARP CEO Myechia Minter-Jordan said in a statement that no family should see any cuts to what they have earned. “Americans have worked hard and paid into Social Security their entire lives, and they deserve to count on it when they retire,” she said.
Michael Peterson, CEO of the debt-focused think tank Peter G. Peterson Foundation, called for a bipartisan focus on Social Security’s finances, especially during this year’s consequential elections.
“It’s important to recognize that the Senators we elect this year will be in office when Social Security becomes unable to pay out full benefits, so this must be a central campaign issue,” said Peterson.
The government also reported Tuesday that Medicare’s hospital trust fund will run out in 2033, after which it would also need to reduce benefits.
Some in Congress are finally paying attention. Representatives Tom Cole, an Oklahoma Republican, and Tom Suozzi, a New York Democrat, introduced a bill Tuesday to create an independent commission to find solutions. But similar commissions have come and gone before, and the problem remains.
McCormick said Americans are running out of time. The senators elected this year will still be in office when the checks are scheduled to be cut.
“If we scrap the cap,” she said, “Social Security could lower the retirement age, increase benefits, and remain solvent indefinitely.”
Whether Washington will listen before the clock hits zero is another question entirely.
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