Trump deportation campaign could cost taxpayers $269 billion, analysis finds

President Donald Trump’s mass deportation campaign is projected to cost U.S. taxpayers nearly $269 billion through the remainder of his term—New Jersey’s share is more than $10 billion—money that could otherwise finance health care for nearly 12 million people or employ more than 930,000 public school teachers, according to a new analysis of federal spending.

The Economic Policy Institute estimates the federal government is on track to spend $268.9 billion on immigration enforcement and deportation efforts, equivalent to about $2,358 per taxpayer.

The estimate includes funding from the Republican tax and spending law enacted in 2025, regular appropriations, and other federal money directed or repurposed for immigration enforcement.

In New Jersey alone, EPI estimates taxpayers’ share of the spending at more than $10 billion, or approximately $2,933 per taxpayer.

The analysis illustrates the scale of the expenditure by calculating what the same amount of money could finance if Congress instead directed it toward education, health care, housing, food assistance and other domestic programs.

Nationally, EPI estimates $269 billion could finance the equivalent cost of 931,963 school teachers, 1.05 million firefighters or 717,070 registered nurses.

The same amount could cover Medicaid costs for nearly 12 million people, medical care for more than 5 million veterans, 6.7 million Head Start slots or 12 weeks of paid parental leave for more than 6.2 million parents, according to the calculator.

It could also finance the equivalent of nearly 9.8 million public housing units or Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits for more than 118 million recipients over the period covered by the analysis.

The figures do not mean those programs would automatically receive the money if deportation spending were eliminated. They are estimates intended to compare the scale of immigration enforcement expenditures with the costs of other government programs.

The Department of Homeland Security has defended the administration’s immigration policies, arguing that illegal immigration itself imposes substantial costs on taxpayers and that encouraging immigrants to leave voluntarily through the administration’s “self-deportation” program saves the government money.

New Jersey’s share tops $10 billion

EPI estimates New Jersey taxpayers will contribute about $10.07 billion toward the deportation campaign through federal taxes.

The organization calculates that the same amount could cover the equivalent cost of 30,866 school teachers, 29,062 firefighters or 24,728 registered nurses in New Jersey.

Alternatively, the money could finance Medicaid coverage for 380,231 people, medical care for 195,365 veterans, 256,777 Head Start slots or paid parental leave for 208,501 parents.

The $10 billion would also be equivalent to the cost of SNAP benefits for more than 4.2 million recipients or nearly 364,000 public housing units, according to the analysis.

The spending comes as economists are examining a second potential cost of the administration’s immigration crackdown: the economic disruption caused when workers are detained, deported or become afraid to report to work.

Research presented during a June 25 EPI forum found that increased immigration arrests were associated with declining employment among both immigrants and U.S.-born workers. University of Colorado economist Chloe N. East said immigration arrests under Trump’s second administration had increased by about 200% and that only about 30% of those arrested had criminal convictions.

East said her research found that as Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests increased in an area, employment declined among both likely undocumented immigrants and U.S.-born workers, with no evidence that increased enforcement improved wages for either group.

That finding challenges one of the economic arguments Trump and Vice President JD Vance made for aggressive deportations during the 2024 campaign: that removing immigrant workers would create jobs for U.S.-born workers.

The unemployment rate among U.S.-born workers averaged 4% in 2024 but reached a three-month average of 4.3% in early 2026, according to an analysis by EPI researchers Daniel Costa and Ben Zipperer.

Previous EPI research projected that deporting 4 million immigrants over four years could ultimately result in 3.3 million fewer employed immigrants and 2.6 million fewer employed U.S.-born workers, with particularly large employment losses in construction.

Researchers say the reason is that immigrant and U.S.-born workers often complement rather than simply replace one another.

A construction company that loses roofers, framers or laborers, for example, may build fewer homes and consequently employ fewer electricians, plumbers, supervisors and other workers. East told the June forum that shortages of immigrant construction labor can therefore reduce employment opportunities for U.S.-born workers.

Enforcement ripples through local economies

Evidence from Minnesota suggests the effects can extend beyond workers who are actually arrested or deported.

Aaron Sojourner, deputy director of research at the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, examined the economic effects of a large Department of Homeland Security enforcement operation in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area.

Sojourner said his research found a 2% decline in hours worked, a 3% decline in employees working and a 2% decline in businesses operating during the enforcement surge. He estimated workers in the metropolitan area lost more than $100 million in wages.

Minnesota’s leisure and hospitality industry lost an estimated 4,600 jobs and $71 million in earnings during the operation, according to the research.

Economists say such effects occur partly because immigrants are consumers as well as workers. Removing workers from a community can reduce household spending, decrease demand for goods and services and ultimately affect businesses that employ U.S.-born workers.

Fear generated by immigration raids can magnify those effects. East said her research found that each immigration arrest was associated with seven fewer immigrant workers remaining on the job even though they were still living in the United States. The research also found employment declines among U.S.-born workers.

The administration maintains that aggressive enforcement is necessary to uphold immigration law, protect American workers and reduce the public costs associated with illegal immigration.

But the emerging economic research suggests the ultimate price of mass deportation could extend beyond the hundreds of billions of dollars Congress has made available for enforcement.

It could also be measured in lost workers, reduced consumer spending, disrupted businesses and lower economic activity in communities where the deportation campaign is taking place.