Trump’s Iran war lies collide with reality as casualties, costs mount

By James J Devine

President Donald Trump insists the United States is “hopefully” nearing the end of its war with Iran. The calendar, the casualty figures and the price of a barrel of oil tell a different story.

Nearly seven months into a conflict Trump said would last weeks, the war continues with active military engagements, a strict naval blockade and expanding regional clashes. Oil prices remain above $100 a barrel.

A U.N.-commissioned panel of human rights experts said Thursday there are “reasonable grounds” to believe the U.S. committed war crimes in two strikes that killed at least 178 civilians.

The House of Representatives has now voted three times to end the war, only to see the measure stall in the Senate.

The gap between the president’s rhetoric and the reality on the ground has become a defining feature of a conflict that the White House launched without congressional authorization and without public support.

Trump told a midterm audience in North Carolina on Wednesday that Iran wants to make a deal. “Hopefully we’re toward the end of the war,” he said. But the fighting shows no sign of stopping.

Iran’s new supreme leader — installed after the U.S. and Israel assassinated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in February — has vowed to continue the fight.

The regime, despite the decapitation of its senior military and political leadership, remains entrenched and has grown more aggressive, not less.

Tehran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, choking off roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies and triggering a global energy crisis.

For American consumers, the cost has been immediate.

Gas prices spiked as Brent crude surged past $100 a barrel. Even with Thursday’s slight decline to about $103, prices remain far above pre-war levels.

Economists warn that normalization could take months even after the strait reopens.

The financial toll extends beyond the pump. The Congressional Budget Office reported this week that the war has cost the U.S. more than $38 billion so far.

That figure is certain to rise as operations continue.

The human cost is harder to quantify.

The U.N. panel’s finding of possible war crimes — involving strikes that killed 178 civilians — adds to a growing tally of unintended consequences that critics say the White House failed to anticipate.

The administration has not responded to the panel’s conclusions.

Domestic opposition has crossed party lines. Iowa Republicans in battleground House races joined Democrats this week in voting to halt the war, reflecting growing unease in districts where the conflict is unpopular.

The war powers resolution, which would require congressional approval for continued military action, passed the House but faces an uncertain path in the Senate.

Trump’s optimism about a negotiated settlement has no visible basis.

Iran’s leadership, viewing the U.S. and Israel as bent on destabilizing the country, has dismissed diplomatic overtures as insincere.

“They believe that diplomatic solution, negotiations has not worked,” said Reza Sayah, PBS NewsHour’s Tehran-based correspondent. “They haven’t gotten anything tangible. So they’re considering and carrying out measures that indicate that they’re being more aggressive.”

The president’s repeated assertions that the end is near echo his pre-war promises of a quick, decisive campaign.

Seven months later, the war has no clear endgame, no congressional authorization and no public mandate — only a mounting bill, a rising body count and an adversary that shows no sign of capitulating.

“Hopefully we’re toward the end of the war,” Trump said.

The American people, and the Iranians living under bombardment, are still waiting.