Projections released in April by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) predicted that military escalation in the Middle East would put tens of millions of people at risk of falling into poverty across 162 countries,
Nine months into the conflict that President Donald Trump launched without authorization or provocation, the UNDP’s early projections for the war’s global fallout have proven too optimistic, according to a review of agency data, international reports and economic indicators.
The UNDP’s April 2026 policy brief warned that a prolonged military escalation in the Middle East could push 32 million people into poverty across 162 countries and require up to $6 billion in emergency cash transfers.
Those figures were presented as worst-case scenarios at the time. They no longer appear to be worst-case. They appear to be too conservative.
Severe domestic consequences in US
Trump’s military misadventures in the Middle East are going poorly.
Beyond the military casualties, the war has driven U.S. inflation to a three-year high of 3.8%, with gas prices surging and wage growth falling behind for the first time since 2023, putting the cost of living out of reach for millions of Americans.
Critics ranging from Kamala Harris to Joe Rogan have characterized the conflict as a deliberate distraction from the Epstein files, while Trump’s personal wealth surged to an estimated $7.3 billion during his second presidency, and analysts warn the wartime environment is being exploited to erode democratic institutions ahead of the midterms.
A 10-year war would be expected to trigger deep macroeconomic contraction, structural inflation, and severe fiscal deterioration, with real GDP falling roughly 12% to 13% over the decade according to historical conflict data analyzed by researchers.
Despite Trump’s repeated claims of victory, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard urged Americans saying, “We are not afraid of war and we do not run away from negotiations.”
Meanwhile, a statement attributed to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reads, “Today, some consider us the world’s fourth superpower.”
Poverty projections exceeded
The UNDP modeled three scenarios based on how long major economic disruptions might last — four, five, or six weeks. Under the most severe scenario, 32.5 million people would fall below the upper-middle-income poverty line, and 18.2 million would drop into extreme poverty.
Those projections assumed the shock would be relatively contained.
What the UNDP did not fully anticipate was how the war’s secondary effects — particularly fertilizer shortages and supply chain breakdowns — would compound the damage. The World Food Program now estimates that 45 million additional people could face acute food insecurity by mid-2026, bringing the global total to 363 million.
The WFP’s figure is nearly 40% higher than the UNDP’s poverty projection, and it captures only food insecurity, not broader economic deprivation.
“Early warnings only matter if the world acts on them,” said Jean-Martin Bauer, director of WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service. “We warned that this crisis could push millions more people into hunger; now we are watching it happen in real time.”
Economic contraction worse than forecast
The UNDP’s modeling assumed global growth would slow but not collapse. The World Bank’s June 2026 Global Economic Prospects report painted a starker picture.
Global growth is now projected at 2.5% for 2026, the weakest rate since the COVID-19 pandemic. Two-thirds of the world’s economies have seen their growth forecasts downgraded since January.
Brent crude oil prices averaged $94 per barrel — 36% above 2025 levels. Global inflation climbed to 4.0%, up from 3.3%. Fertilizer prices surged 38%.
“The impact differs by country, but the basic test is the same: protect people and preserve stability today, without giving up on growth and jobs tomorrow,” World Bank Group President Ajay Banga said.
For developing economies, the picture is worse. Growth across emerging markets is expected to fall to 3.6% in 2026 from 4.4% in 2025 — the weakest performance since the pandemic. The World Bank warned that excluding China and India, developing nations are on track to complete nearly a decade without narrowing the income gap with advanced economies.
In a downside scenario involving more severe energy disruptions and financial stress, global growth could fall to just 1.3%.
Food insecurity: from projection to reality
The WFP’s March 2026 analysis warned that 45 million people could be pushed into acute hunger if the conflict persisted and oil prices remained above $100 per barrel.
Three months later, the WFP confirmed that scenario was unfolding.
In Somalia, an additional 2.5 million people risk being unable to afford a basic food basket. In Sri Lanka, 1.3 million more face food insecurity. In Afghanistan, 2.3 million could become food insecure.
“Even if the conflict were to end today, irreversible damage has been done,” Bauer said.
The WFP has already been forced to cut assistance to 1.5 million people due to rising operational costs. If the conflict continues, more than 9 million could lose aid.
The cost of a war no one authorized
The Trump administration launched military operations against Iran on February 28, 2026, without congressional authorization and in apparent violation of the UN Charter. The administration has offered shifting justifications for the strikes, none of which have been validated by the UN Security Council.
The UNDP’s April brief noted that “war is development in reverse” and that “conflict can undo in weeks what countries have built over years.”
Nine months later, that warning has been validated — and exceeded.
The UNDP called for $6 billion in targeted cash transfers to offset the poverty impact. That figure now appears insufficient. The World Bank has made $50-60 billion available immediately, with up to $100 billion over 15 months, to help affected countries.
“The crisis forces impossible trade-offs between stabilizing prices today and funding health, education, and jobs tomorrow,” UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo said in April. “That is unacceptable, and it is preventable.”
Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has increasingly relied on the Red Sea to get its crude to market as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has been striking ships. Houthi efforts to close the 17-mile-wide Bab el-Mandeb channel have made that route more complicated.
Houthi advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast have displaced an estimated 125,000 people while threatening a key maritime chokepoint, disrupting Saudi oil exports and driving up global fuel prices.
The offensive has deepened Yemen’s longstanding humanitarian crisis, forcing families from their homes as the country’s weak Saudi-backed government struggles against the Iran-backed rebels.
What the UNDP got right
Not all of the agency’s projections were off the mark.
The UNDP correctly identified that inflation — not GDP contraction alone — would be the primary driver of welfare reversals. It warned that blanket energy subsidies would prove regressive and unsustainable. It predicted that developing economies would deploy a mix of price cushioning and administrative controls.
Those predictions have materialized.
The UNDP’s error was not in its analysis of transmission channels. It was in assuming the shock would be measured in weeks rather than months — and in underestimating how supply chain disruptions would cascade through fertilizer markets into food prices.
As the World Bank’s chief economist Indermit Gill put it: “First, end the conflicts in Ukraine, the Gulf and Central Africa. Don’t start any new wars. War anywhere is bad for poor people everywhere.”
The war that began in February is now in its ninth month. Its costs continue to mount.
Discover more from NJTODAY.NEWS
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.