Trump slump weighs on Republicans as GOP retreats in key battlegrounds

The president’s war, inflation & political weakness are becoming a serious liability for Republicans

President Donald Trump’s deteriorating approval ratings and voter anger over rising prices and the war with Iran are creating increasingly difficult terrain for Republican congressional candidates, prompting GOP groups to retreat from one major Senate battleground as Democrats expand their offensive into Republican-held districts.

The clearest evidence emerged in North Carolina, where a dam browe when the Senate Leadership Fund, a major Republican super PAC, announced it is pausing television advertising intended to help Trump-endorsed Republican Michael Whatley defeat former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.

The group had announced a $71 million investment in the race in April and has already spent at least $30 million supporting Whatley, according to WRAL and advertising-tracking firm AdImpact. At least $15 million more had been reserved. Another Republican group, Old North Action, previously canceled $6.5 million in North Carolina advertising reservations.

The decisions amount to political triage in a state Trump carried by 3.3 percentage points in 2024.

Cooper has led Whatley in every major public poll conducted since early August. Recent surveys tracked by RealClearPolling have shown Cooper ahead by margins ranging from 5 to 15 percentage points, with a late-September Big Data Poll putting Cooper ahead 51%-39%.

Doug Heye, a Republican strategist and former Republican National Committee communications director, told WRAL the Senate Leadership Fund’s decision was “a blow” to Whatley and recognition that Republicans have not seen the polling tighten sufficiently.

Whatley’s campaign insists the race remains winnable and says late-deciding North Carolina voters have historically moved toward Republicans. Cooper’s campaign has also cautioned against assuming the contest is settled, noting that Democrats have struggled to win federal statewide elections in North Carolina.

But the Republican retreat illustrates the difficult calculations facing the party with Election Day just over a month away. Money spent trying to rescue one struggling candidate cannot be used in increasingly competitive Senate contests elsewhere.

GOP hazards extend well beyond North Carolina.

RealClearPolling’s national generic congressional ballot average showed Democrats ahead by about 8 percentage points Friday, while Trump’s approval rating has fallen substantially below 50%.

A recent RealClearPolling average put Trump’s approval below 40%, with nearly 60% disapproving.

A new Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll offers a possible explanation for some of that deterioration: the economy.

About 6 in 10 Americans said the economy was worse than it was two years ago, while roughly two-thirds said higher-than-usual prices were at least partly the result of Trump’s policies. About 7 in 10 said Trump’s handling of the cost of living had been worse than they expected. Even 52% of Republicans said his performance on living costs had fallen short of their expectations.

Iran is another source of dissatisfaction. The AP-NORC survey found 71% disapproved of Trump’s handling of Iran.

Those numbers do not establish that Trump’s standing will determine individual congressional races. Candidates, local conditions, turnout and campaign spending can all affect the results. But they create a challenging national backdrop for Republicans running in competitive states and districts.

Reuters reported Sunday that Republican organizations and major donors have begun spending money in at least 39 House districts previously considered relatively safe, after internal polling showed greater vulnerability than party strategists expected. Republicans still hold significant financial advantages in many contests, but the defensive spending has forced the party to spread resources across a much larger map.

At the same time, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on Friday added eight Republican-held or GOP-leaning districts to its offensive target list, expanding its “Districts in Play” program to 66 seats. Several of the newly targeted districts were carried by Trump by double-digit margins in 2024.

Kean becomes an underdog in New Jersey

Few Republican incumbents illustrate the problem more clearly than Rep. Tom Kean Jr., a “dead man walking,” in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District.

Kean is “marked for extinction” although he is seeking reelection against Democrat Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter and test pilot who later worked as a health care executive.

The Cook Political Report moved the race from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democratic” on Sept. 25, saying that although virtually any Republican would face a difficult environment in the district this year, Kean has additional vulnerabilities and “looks like the clear underdog,” an extraordinary position for an incumbent whose family has been one of New Jersey’s best-known Republican political dynasties.

An InsiderNJ/StimSight Research poll conducted Sept. 8-12 found Bennett leading Kean 47% to 42% among likely voters, although the 5-point difference was within the survey’s 4.7-percentage-point margin of error. Kean was viewed favorably by 37% of respondents and unfavorably by 55%, according to the poll.

The district itself remains closely divided. Trump carried it by about 1 percentage point in 2024, while Democrat Mikie Sherrill carried it by about 2 points during her successful campaign for governor in 2025.

Kean also faces problems distinct from Trump’s national standing. He was absent from Congress for about four months while hospitalized for treatment of depression, missing 140 roll call votes before returning June 30 and publicly explaining his absence. A September poll found only 37% of likely voters approved of Kean’s job performance.

Bennett has sought to turn the election into a referendum on both Kean’s record and the Trump administration, emphasizing health care, affordability and what she describes as Washington corruption.

National cable news is spotlighting the embarrassing moment where voters laughed at Kean Jr. after he doubled down on the cost-spiking war with Iran.

Kean, meanwhile, has emphasized his independence and legislative record while arguing that Bennett would give Democrats another vote for their national agenda at the same time he gave a big thumbs up to rising gas prices and record high diesel costs on the debate stage.

The result is a race in which national conditions and an incumbent’s individual vulnerabilities are reinforcing each other, rather than a contest whose outcome can be attributed to Trump alone.

Democrats put Van Drew on target list

Democrats are simultaneously widening the battlefield in South Jersey.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced Friday that it was adding New Jersey’s Republican-held 2nd Congressional District to its “Districts in Play,” formally targeting Rep. Jeff Van Drew as Democrats look for additional routes to a House majority. The DCCC’s decision put additional national attention on Democratic nominee Zack Mullock, the mayor of Cape May.

Van Drew was elected to Congress as a Democrat in 2018 before switching parties in 2019 and becoming one of Trump’s most prominent New Jersey allies.

The district remains considerably more Republican than Kean’s.

Trump carried the 2nd District by about 12.5 percentage points in 2024, and Republican Jack Ciattarelli carried it by about 7 points in the 2025 gubernatorial election. Van Drew performed even better, winning reelection by 17 points in 2024 after prevailing by 19 points two years earlier.

Those results make Van Drew a more difficult Democratic target than Kean.

Still, Democrats point to Sherrill’s 2025 performance as evidence that the district has become less reliably Republican. Sherrill lost the district 53.3%-46.0%, a substantial improvement over recent Democratic performances there.

The Democratic nominee, Cape May Mayor Zack Mullock, is seeking to capitalize on the national environment and Van Drew’s close identification with Trump.

“No Values Jeff Van Drew is everything wrong with politics,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said Friday, accusing the congressman of favoring tax cuts for wealthy Americans while undermining health care.

DelBene accused the congressman of putting political expediency ahead of his constituents and supporting Trump blindly.

The language reflects Democratic campaign messaging, not an independent assessment of Van Drew’s record.

Republicans counter that Van Drew’s repeated double-digit victories demonstrate a personal political base considerably stronger than the Republican Party’s underlying support in the district.

Affordability dominates Pennsylvania battlegrounds

Similar pressures are visible across the Delaware River.

In Pennsylvania, four Republican-held House districts are being fought largely around the cost of gasoline, groceries, housing and other necessities, according to interviews conducted by The Philadelphia Inquirer.

The newspaper found voters expressing frustration with prices in districts represented by Republican Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan and Scott Perry. Some voters who previously supported Trump told the newspaper they were reconsidering Republican candidates because of fuel prices and the economic consequences of the Iran war.

Democrats are attempting to connect those pocketbook concerns directly to Republican votes and Trump’s economic policies. Republicans dispute that characterization and argue that Democratic policies bear substantial responsibility for inflation and the cost of living.

The argument could prove central to the closing weeks of the midterm campaign because affordability cuts across ideological and partisan lines.

Early vote provides another warning sign

There are also preliminary indications of stronger Democratic enthusiasm, though early voting data cannot reliably predict the final result.

More than 700,000 Americans had already voted in at least 30 states by the beginning of October. An analysis of early voting data found Democrats outperforming their comparable 2024 levels in several battlegrounds and requesting mail ballots at higher rates.

Those numbers can change substantially as Election Day approaches. Republicans have also increasingly encouraged supporters to vote before Election Day, making historical comparisons more difficult.

Still, the data accompany other evidence of a political environment that has become considerably more challenging for Republicans.

House Democrats on Friday expanded their target list by eight districts, including seats that would ordinarily have been considered difficult Democratic pickups. The move reflects growing confidence among Democratic strategists but does not mean those districts will change parties.

The matchup between incumbent Republican Representative Chris Smith and Democratic challenger Rachel Peace in New Jersey’s 4th Congressional District highlights a classic dynamic in long-held congressional seats. Observers look at this race through two main lenses:

Smith, the chairman of the Congressional Pro-Life Caucus, which is a leading force working to outlaw abortion and prohibit funding through health insurance plans for women who want to terminate an unwanted pregnancy, is said to be running in a safe seat.

The challenger points to voter fatigue and the argument that after more than 45 years in Washington, a career politician can become detached from the shifting daily economic struggles of everyday constituents.

Peace’s campaign has heavily focused on the rising cost of living, housing, and healthcare policy, seeking to frame Smith as being out of touch with modern middle-class anxieties.

Proponents of this view argue that high-turnout or unpredictable midterm environments can create narrow openings if voters decide it is time for structural reform and a new generation of leadership

The distinction applies to North Carolina

Republicans are not conceding any race, and Whatley says he will have sufficient resources to compete. But the decision by a major Republican super PAC to withdraw advertising after committing tens of millions of dollars represents something more tangible than partisan optimism or pessimism.

It is money moving.

And with just weeks remaining before Election Day, Republican strategists are increasingly being forced to decide which candidates can still benefit from additional spending and which races would consume resources that could be more effectively deployed elsewhere.

Trump remains overwhelmingly influential inside the Republican Party, and his endorsement helped Whatley secure the GOP nomination in North Carolina. His political standing, however, presents a different question in a general election increasingly dominated by concerns over prices, the economy and Iran.

For Republicans such as Kean, the national headwinds coincide with significant individual vulnerabilities.

For incumbents such as Van Drew, they have encouraged Democrats to spend time and money backing a popular mayor in territory that appeared safer for Republicans only months ago.

For Smith, this is the kind of year when lightning can strike if voters feel he is out of touch or that 50 years in Congress is too long.

North Carolina offers the starkest evidence yet of what happens when those calculations turn against a candidate: A race once expected to consume enormous Republican resources is instead seeing some of those resources moved elsewhere.

Whether that retreat represents an isolated strategic decision or the beginning of a broader Republican contraction will be tested across the country’s battlegrounds on Nov. 3.