Superpower aggressors, the US and Russia, are losing wars in Ukraine and Iran

Russia’s mounting losses in Ukraine and the United States’ prolonged confrontation with Iran are exposing a common weakness in wars launched by vastly stronger powers: The ability to destroy does not guarantee the ability to compel surrender.

In Ukraine, Russian forces are suffering heavy casualties while Ukrainian troops reclaim territory in a strategically important eastern sector. In the Middle East, seven months of American military pressure have failed to resolve a confrontation that continues to disrupt energy supplies and erode public support at home. Neither conflict has produced a definitive defeat, but recent developments challenge both governments’ claims of success.

Ukraine’s military estimated that Russia suffered 46,230 casualties in September, including troops killed and wounded — its highest monthly total of 2026, according to UNITED24 Media. The figure is a Ukrainian wartime estimate and has not been independently verified. It does not represent 46,230 deaths.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian commanders reported recovering 176 square kilometers, about 68 square miles, during Operation Vivaldi in northern Donetsk. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office said the operation thwarted a Russian attempt to break into the rear of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk urban area and forced Moscow to shift reinforcements from other sectors. Those assessments came from Ukrainian officials.

The Institute for the Study of War described the operation as significant in disrupting Russia’s attempted encirclement of Ukraine’s eastern defensive strongholds, Reuters reported. Russia nevertheless continues pressing toward Kostiantynivka, and Ukraine still controls only about one-fifth of Donetsk. Local Ukrainian gains therefore demonstrate resistance and operational success without establishing that Russia is losing across the entire front.

The strategic problem for Moscow is the price of its campaign. Large expenditures of troops and equipment have failed to secure all the territory it demands, while Ukraine retains the capacity to counterattack.

Russia also remains capable of inflicting severe civilian suffering. The Associated Press reported that a wave of Russian drone strikes in late September killed at least seven people and injured more than 80 across Ukraine. Battlefield frustration has not diminished the danger to people far from the front.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte told Euronews that Russia should end its war and stop issuing nuclear threats. He said there was no imminent threat to NATO territory and emphasized the alliance’s conventional strength. His remarks underscored the gap between Moscow’s threatening posture and its difficulty defeating Ukraine.

The American campaign against Iran presents a different version of the same problem: Military pressure has yet to produce a durable political settlement.

Euronews reported Oct. 4 that the Strait of Hormuz remained closed despite an agreement three months earlier intended to restore navigation. The continuing disruption has driven energy costs higher and complicated Ukraine’s campaign, with President Donald Trump cautioning Kyiv against attacks on Russian energy facilities.

Washington is also sending additional forces. Euronews reported that the USS Theodore Roosevelt was heading toward the Middle East, along with a separate Marine deployment. However, the carrier is scheduled to replace another ship, leaving uncertainty over whether a three-carrier presence would represent sustained reinforcement or a temporary overlap.

Trump continues to portray the campaign as a success.

“By annihilating Iran, we’ve created peace in the world,” he told TIME, according to CNN’s account of the interview. Yet he also expressed doubt that peace with Iran was achievable — a striking tension between his declaration of accomplishment and the unresolved conflict.

Public confidence has weakened. CNN reported in September that three-quarters of Americans believed Trump lacked a clear plan for Iran, 78% said he was doing too little to end the war, and roughly two-thirds said the United States was not winning. Polls measure public judgment rather than battlefield outcomes, but they reveal the political costs of a campaign without a clear conclusion.

Taken together, the developments suggest that both initiating powers are struggling to convert force into their desired results. Ukraine can frustrate Russia by denying decisive territorial gains. Iran can preserve leverage by sustaining a confrontation whose economic consequences extend well beyond its borders.

The evidence supports a judgment of strategic frustration rather than completed defeat. Both stronger powers retain enormous destructive capacity. Their continuing difficulty is making that destruction deliver a settlement they can credibly call victory.