Global oil prices spiked more than $2 a barrel Monday as Houthi militants backed by Iran shuttered Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid International Airport, the latest chaotic front in President Donald Trump’s unprovoked and illegal war against Iran — a conflict now threatening to expand three weeks before Republicans face voters in what increasingly looks like a political buzzsaw.
Brent crude climbed 1.8% to settle at $106.65 a barrel, its highest level since mid-September, while West Texas Intermediate rose 2% to $93.74.
The surge came after Houthi forces struck the Riyadh airport Saturday, killing 12 people and forcing the suspension of operations at one of the Middle East’s busiest hubs. The Saudi-led coalition called the attack a “full-fledged war crime” and vowed decisive retaliation.
The Pentagon has already been ordered to prepare for a renewed, large-scale military campaign against Iran, with U.S. and Israeli officials suggesting strikes could come before the Nov. 3 midterm elections or ahead of Israel’s Oct. 27 parliamentary vote.
Trump’s national security team huddled in secret at Camp David earlier this month to discuss the escalation, which would target Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites.
Trump, for his part, mused publicly about renaming the Strait of Hormuz the “Trump Strait” while telling a Tennessee rally that Iran would “probably do a little bit extra before the election, thinking it’s going to hurt us.”
He insisted the midterms would have “no impact” on his war strategy.
The president’s approval rating has cratered to 30% — the lowest of his second term — according to Pew Research, with 44% of voters saying their midterm ballots will be cast against him. Republicans in competitive races are scrambling to distance themselves from the White House, running ads opposing Trump’s tariffs and calling for an end to the Iran war they once cheered.
Trump’s attempt to calm markets collapsed within hours. He announced an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend, only for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to say he had never heard of the deal. By Monday, Russian drone strikes had hit at least six Ukrainian energy targets, and European allies openly doubted that any agreement existed. Trump’s temporary easing of sanctions on Russian diesel did little to stop the bleeding at the pump.
Oil traders are pricing in both the Saudi supply disruption and the prospect of a widening war that could choke off the Strait of Hormuz entirely. The war, launched by Trump in late February and branded “Operation Epic Fury” by the White House, has already destroyed more than 150 Iranian warships and 97% of Iran’s naval mines, according to administration claims. But more than seven months in, Iran’s proxies are more emboldened than ever, and American voters are looking at gas prices and wondering what, exactly, they got for the blood and treasure.
Republican strategists see the writing on the wall. Early voting is underway. Polls show Democrats leading by 8 percentage points nationally on the generic ballot. And in Ohio — a state Trump won comfortably twice — a Democrat now leads the Senate race by 3 percentage points.
“We’re feeling the strain of things being more expensive,” Chillicothe voter Chad Beatty told ABC News. Fuel prices are “killing” his landscaping business, he said, making it “almost not worth working.”
Trump is telling voters to pretend he’s on the ballot. With three weeks to go and Brent crude above $106 a barrel, that may be the one thing Republicans fear most.
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