The United Nations Environment Program announced Wednesday that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with no or limited overshoot, is no longer possible.
The finding comes from the agency’s latest annual report, titled “Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return,” released in Nairobi.
The document emphasizes that while passing the key target threshold set by the 2015 Paris Agreement is now inevitable, the resulting overshoot need not be permanent if countries act immediately.
There is no indication that major industrial powers are inclined to start behaving responsibly, and President Donald Trump, leader of the biggest contributor to global warming, has asserted a belief that the climate crisis is “a hoax” intended to harm the wealthy.
According to the report, humanity can still minimize peak temperatures and bring global warming back below the 1.5 C (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) mark by the end of the century through aggressive emission reductions and large-scale atmospheric carbon dioxide removal.
“We’ve spent decades postponing cuts to emissions, and now we’re facing the consequences,” Anne Olhoff, director of the UNEP-Copenhagen Climate Center, said in a statement accompanying the report. “The world can still attain the goals of the Paris Agreement, but we must work hard to not only meet but surpass our most ambitious climate targets. The longer we wait, the larger the risk that we jeopardize the temperature goal.”
UN Secretary-General António Guterres stressed in a video message that overshooting the threshold does not mean humanity should give up.
“We can still keep it as small and as short as possible — and bring temperatures back below 1.5 C before the end of the century,” Guterres said. He cautioned that delay carries immediate real-world costs, citing recent “deadly floods, brutal heatwaves, raging wildfires,” and deepening economic inequalities.
Targets for a Lower Peak
The report analyzes a “lowest possible” overshoot scenario in which global warming peaks between 1.7 C and 1.8 C around mid-century before declining. Achieving that trajectory would require cutting global greenhouse gas emissions by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040, all compared to 2025 levels.
Meeting these benchmarks requires an annual reduction rate of nearly 6% every year through 2035. The agency calculated a 50% chance of returning temperatures to 1.5 C by 2100 if nations begin following this path immediately, noting that every five years of continued emissions at current levels adds roughly 0.1 C to global warming.
A temporary breach of the 1.5 C limit will still trigger severe climate impacts, including droughts, floods, and severe storms. UNEP officials warned that each additional year spent above the threshold raises the risk of triggering irreversible changes to coral reefs, ocean circulation, permafrost, and polar ice sheets.
Current Policies Fall Short
Global greenhouse gas emissions remain at record levels, growing by an average of 0.8% annually over the past decade.
Although emissions leveled off between 2024 and 2025, UNEP researchers said it is too early to declare that global emissions have peaked, as fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions continued to rise in 2025.
Under current government policies, global temperatures are projected to increase by 2.8 C by the end of the century.
Even if all countries fully meet their Paris Agreement commitments, warming would reach 2.6 C.
Fully implementing all net-zero pledges would lower expected warming to 2.1 C, still well above the targets negotiated by international leaders.
“The emissions gap is now a leadership gap,” Guterres said. “And the world is running out of time and excuses to close it.”
Sector Performance and Needed Changes
To achieve the lowest possible overshoot scenario, the report states that renewable energy capacity must triple by 2035, while the share of coal in the global energy supply must fall by more than half compared to 2025 levels. Global emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, must drop by 25%.
Progress in the energy sector offers some encouragement. Solar photovoltaic panel deployment has expanded seven times faster than expected a decade ago, while wind farm expansion has also outpaced early forecasts. In most parts of the world, renewable energy now represents the cheapest source of new electricity.
However, emission reductions in other economic sectors continue to lag. To compensate, the report asserts that the world must permanently store roughly 320 gigatons of carbon dioxide by 2100 using carbon removal technologies. UNEP authors noted that carbon dioxide removal carries socioeconomic and technical uncertainties and cannot serve as a replacement for direct emission cuts.
Action Demanded from Major Emitters
Guterres called on the Group of 20 major economies to lead the effort by developing clear timelines to transition away from fossil fuels, supporting impacted workers, investing in power grids, cutting methane, and ending deforestation.
He also urged developed nations to provide affordable financing, lower capital costs, and ease debt burdens for developing countries to speed up their clean energy transition.
“Every fraction of a degree matters,” Guterres said. “Every year of delay makes the way back steeper.”
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