In a rapid shift days before the midterm elections, White House and campaign sources confirmed Friday that President Donald Trump has reversed course and will hold in-person campaign rallies in Kansas and Iowa on Sunday.
Along with flip-flopping on the Midwestern schedule, Trump also canceled an Oct. 31 rally in New Jersey alongside Republican congressional candidates Justin Murphy and Rep. Tom Kean Jr., which was set less than 36 hours earlier.
Sources in Washington and Trenton indicated that Kean reacted strongly against the proposed visit to his district, where the president suffers from low approval ratings.
Families across the United States face a growing financial squeeze from high childcare and student loan costs, surging gasoline prices, and measures putting health care out of reach ahead of the midterm elections, all of which are blamed on policies pursued by the Trump Republicans.
The decision marks a sharp turnabout after the Republican National Committee and White House officials announced Thursday that Trump had scrapped his planned weekend appearances in Salina, Kansas, and Dubuque, Iowa.
RNC officials initially stated the cancellations were part of a pivot toward roughly 20 remote tele-rallies aimed at reaching a broader swath of voters nationwide in the final push before the Nov. 3 midterms.
Recent polling underscores Trump’s headwind in New Jersey, where his approval rating among likely voters stands below 30%.
A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released Oct. 28 showed Trump with a 29% approval rating and 66% disapproval rating among likely voters, down 10 percentage points from his standing before the 2018 midterms.
Similar trends emerged in recent surveys by Stockton University (31% approval, 64% disapproval) and Rutgers-Eagleton (24% favorable, 66% unfavorable).
According to the FDU survey, Trump remains underwater across major demographic groups in the state, including men (32%–64%), women (26%–67%), white voters (32%–63%), Hispanic voters (36%–60%), and Black voters (7%–83%).
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, on Friday shifted a dozen more races toward Democrats in the final stretch of a midterm cycle in which the handicapper predicted Republicans would lose dozens of House races, and forecast a Democratic House majority between 227 and 240 seats.
“While Democrats won’t reach the 257 seats they had following President Barack Obama’s election — a high water mark for them this century — they could surpass the majorities they had following the 2006 and 2018 blue wave cycles,” said Erin Covey.
“Control of the Senate is hanging in the balance, with seven key races still within the margin of error, giving both parties a path to the majority in 2027,” wrote another Cook analyst, Jessica Taylor.
“But given the dismal national political environment for Republicans — and the fact that Democrats have multiple scenarios to gain the four seats they need to flip the chamber (of the seven seats sitting in Toss Up, six are held by Republicans) — we see Democrats as … better positioned to win the majority than Republicans are to keep it,” said Taylor.
While 74% of Republicans approve of his performance—led by 95% of self-identified “MAGA” voters—his approval drops to 24% among independents and 6% among Democrats.
Political analysts note that his standing in the Garden State has created significant challenges for down-ballot Republicans in races, as the election is widely viewed as a referendum on Trump’s failing administration.
The schedule alterations follow an exchange Thursday outside the White House, where Trump lashed out at a reporter who asked whether he canceled the Kansas appearance because he was tired of traveling.
“I don’t feel I have to go to Kansas,” Trump said, falsely asserting that incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is performing well in polls.
A new Emerson College poll shows Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Marshall 48.7% to 45.2% in the Kansas Senate race—a notable shift in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since the 1930s, driven in part by Republican political headwinds surrounding skyrocketing energy costs, Trump’s abysmal approval ratings, and the war in Iran.
Under the updated schedule, Trump will maintain his scheduled tele-rallies alongside back-to-back in-person appearances on Sunday in Salina and Dubuque as both parties make their final push for control of Congress.
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