When crime rates increase, so do calls for stiffer sentencing, often without regard to the effectiveness or fairness of such long prison terms.
However, according to progressive Democrat Lisa McCormick, the leading motivation for crime is not the severity of punishment, but the likelihood of getting caught.
“When you are driving on a highway and the speed limit is 50 mph, you don’t decide to go faster based on whether the fine is $10 or $100,” McCormick said. “That choice depends on whether you think you are going to get caught. And people who commit auto theft, burglary, and other crimes use the same basic formula.”
McCormick argues that poverty, addiction, and mental health issues can all contribute to crime, but they are not the primary factors. “What makes a person cross that line is they are not concerned about getting caught,” she said.
McCormick’s analysis is supported by data from the FBI, which shows that the vast majority of crimes in the United States go unsolved. In 2020, for example, only 62% of violent crimes and 46% of property crimes were solved.
“When crime rates increase, so do calls for stiffer sentencing, often without regard to the effectiveness or fairness of those sentences,” said former U.S. Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates and former U.S. Rep. Trey Gowdy, who co-chaired an independent task force convened by the nonpartisan think tank the Council on Criminal Justice. “Criminal justice policy should be based on facts and evidence, not rhetoric and emotion, and we should be laser-focused on strategies that make the most effective use of our limited resources.”
“While the administration of Governor Phil Murphy has been failing to disclose timely crime data from New Jersey, the latest figures available show that almost half the homicide cases go unsolved,” said McCormick. “Governor Chris Christie had similarly morbid homicide clearance rates, so for the last dozen years or more, people in New Jersey have literally been getting away with murder,”
For the past 60 years, U.S. detectives have gotten worse at one of the most basic jobs of law enforcement so it is not a problem just for New Jersey.
In the 1960s, more than 90 percent of all homicides were “cleared” by police, with an arrest or the identification of a dead suspect. But the clearance rate has declined in each of the past six decades.
The homicide clearance rate was 82% in 1976, and in the most recent data available from the FBI, the clearance rate hit an all-time low of just over 50 percent.
That means that about half of all murders in the United States today go unsolved as the number of homicides increased by 29.4% in 2020 compared to 2019.
“Studies have shown that people are more likely to commit crimes when they believe they are unlikely to be caught,” said McCormick. “For example, a study by the Rand Corporation found that people who believe they have a 5% chance of being caught are 10 times more likely to commit a crime than people who believe they have a 50% chance of being caught.”
McCormick believes that the solution to the crime problem is to invest in crime prevention programs rather than increase the number of police officers. She also calls for reforms to the criminal justice system, such as reducing mass incarceration.
“Incidents of police violence, rising homicide rates, and increases in other types of violent crime each poses a massive policy challenge in their own right, but they are related because if the public does not respect and assist law enforcement, then the officers cannot do their job,” said McCormick. “A justice system that is both respected and worthy of respect is essential for a flourishing society. When people believe that the law is fair and that they will be treated fairly if they come into contact with the justice system, they are more likely to obey the law, participate in civic life, and cooperate with the authorities.”
“Some research has found that increased police presence has little or no effect on crime rates such as a study by the Rand Corporation that found there was no significant difference in crime rates between cities with high and low levels of police presence,” said McCormick.
McCormick pointed out that the effectiveness of increased police presence depends on a number of factors, such as the level of community support for law enforcement officers.
“Increased police presence can also have negative consequences. For example, it can lead to increased racial profiling and police brutality,” said McCormick.
South Carolina Law School professor Seth Stoughton pointed out that part of the problem is the dominance of a warrior mindset among police that is instilled through training and police culture.
Americans have asked the police to be at ‘war’ with the public, especially those they perceive as implicated in a war on drugs, a war on crime, a war on terror, and a war on disorder — most of whom are not white. When we ask the police to be at war, excessive use of force is inevitable, especially when it comes to young men of color.
“We need to stop treating people who commit crimes as if they are beyond redemption,” McCormick said. “We need to give them the opportunity to get back on their feet and become productive members of society. There are certainly some criminals so loathsome and evil that we want to lock them up and throw away the key, but reality demands that we stop treating crime like a TV show where the hero shoots first and asks questions later.”
McCormick’s views are in line with those of a growing number of Americans who are frustrated with the status quo. A recent poll found that 63% of Americans believe that the criminal justice system is unfair.
McCormick said she is talking about criminal justice reform because she believes that ordinary citizens can make a difference by bringing a new perspective to their decision-making instead of responding to the kind of rhetoric that comes out of Washington, D.C. but never seems to get results.
“I believe that we can build a better America,” McCormick said. “An America where everyone has the opportunity to succeed, regardless of their background. An America where everyone is treated fairly, regardless of their race, religion, or socioeconomic status. An America where crime is not a way of life, but a rare exception.”
Philando Castile was killed during a routine traffic stop. After informing police he was legally armed, he was shot repeatedly while reaching for his ID and registration.
It is widely known that police engage in pretextual traffic stops because they are fishing for something else, usually drugs. These stops are notoriously skewed by race, although exact figures are hard to come by because of a lack of data from police.
Over the last few decades, cities across the country have significantly increased low-level traffic enforcement as both a form of revenue generation and as part of the war on drugs.
Such low-level enforcement is driven by the Broken Windows theory and is a stark example of abusive and unnecessary overpolicing.
“Our political system is broken, so Americans must rise to the responsibility of citizenship,” said McCormick. “If we demand solutions, we can get the results we want but voters must stop buying the lies that politicians are using to distract us and distort the issues.”
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