Doomsday Clock stays at 90 seconds to midnight despite worsening conditions

The Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists left the hands of the Doomsday Clock unchanged despite ominous trends that suggest the world is at the precipice of global catastrophe.

The Doomsday Clock was reset at 90 seconds to midnight, still, the closest it has ever been to midnight, reflecting the continued state of unprecedented danger the world faces.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, stewards of the Doomsday Clock, emphasized in their announcement that the clock could be turned back, but governments and people needed to take urgent action.

A variety of global threats cast menacing shadows over the 2024 Clock deliberations, including the Russia-Ukraine war and deterioration of nuclear arms reduction agreements; the Climate Crisis and 2023’s official designation as the hottest year on record; the increased sophistication of genetic engineering technologies; and the dramatic advance of generative AI which could magnify disinformation and corrupt the global information environment making it harder to solve the larger existential challenges.

“Make no mistake: resetting the clock at 90 seconds to midnight is not an indication that the world is stable,” said Rachel Bronson, PhD. “Quite the opposite. It’s urgent for governments and communities around the world to act. And the Bulletin remains hopeful—and inspired—in seeing the younger generations leading the charge.”

The Doomsday Clock’s time is set by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board (SASB) in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, which includes nine Nobel Laureates.

Previously in January 2023, the Doomsday Clock was set at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest the symbol of mankind’s proximity to self-destruction had ever been.

“Ominous trends continue to point the world toward global catastrophe. The war in Ukraine and the widespread and growing reliance on nuclear weapons increase the risk of nuclear escalation,” said the Doomsday Clock statement. ”China, Russia, and the United States are all spending huge sums to expand or modernize their nuclear arsenals, adding to the ever-present danger of nuclear war through mistake or miscalculation.”

“In 2023, Earth experienced its hottest year on record, and massive floods, wildfires, and other climate-related disasters affected millions of people around the world,” it said. “Meanwhile, rapid and worrisome developments in the life sciences and other disruptive technologies accelerated, while governments made only feeble efforts to control them […] But the world can be made safer. The clock can move away from midnight.”

Gov. Jerry Brown, executive chair of the Bulletin said: “As though on the Titanic, leaders are steering the world toward catastrophe–more nuclear bombs, vast carbon emissions, dangerous pathogens, and artificial intelligence. Only the big powers like China, America, and Russia can pull us back. Despite deep antagonisms, they must cooperate – or we are doomed.”

Bill Nye, who participated in the 2024 Doomsday Clock announcement, said: “For decades, scientists have been warning us of the dangers facing humankind. We could be facing catastrophe unless we better manage the technologies we’ve created. It’s time to act.”

A durable end to Russia’s war in Ukraine seems distant, and the use of nuclear weapons by Russia in that conflict remains a serious possibility.

Nuclear spending programs in the three largest nuclear powers—China, Russia, and the United States—threaten to trigger a three-way nuclear arms race as the world’s arms control architecture collapses. 

Efforts to reinstate an Iran nuclear deal appear unlikely to succeed, North Korea continues building nuclear weapons, plus Pakistan and India are pursuing atomic weapons development without restraint.

The candidates’ suitability to shoulder the immense presidential authority to launch nuclear weapons should be a central concern of the US election, but voters seem intent on returning to power a criminally-accused former president who sought to undermine American democracy.

The war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas has the potential to escalate into a wider Middle Eastern conflict that could pose unpredictable threats, regionally and globally. 

Global greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise in 2023 as global and North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures broke hottest year records, and Antarctic sea ice reached its lowest daily extent since the advent of satellite data. 

Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are grossly insufficient to avoid dangerous human and economic impacts from climate change, which guarantees the toll of human suffering from disruption will inexorably mount.

The convergence of emerging artificial intelligence tools and biological technologies may radically empower individuals to misuse biology. 

President Joe Biden’s executive order that calls for protection “against the risks of using AI to engineer dangerous biological materials by developing strong new standards for biological synthesis screening” is not legally binding.

One of the most significant technological developments in the last year involved the dramatic advance of generative artificial intelligence. It is clear that AI is a paradigmatic disruptive technology and that recent efforts at the global governance of AI must be expanded.

AI has great potential to magnify disinformation and corrupt the information environment required to solve large global issues and on which democracy depends. AI-enabled disinformation efforts could be a factor that prevents the world from dealing effectively with nuclear risks, pandemics, and climate change.

Military uses of AI are accelerating. Extensive use of AI is already occurring in intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, simulation, and training. Of particular concern are lethal autonomous weapons, which identify and destroy targets without human intervention. 

Climate change fueled a rise in rare disease outbreaks last year