Nearly one-third of Americans believe at least one Trump assassination attempt was ‘staged’

By Sofia Rubinson and Samantha Tanner | NewsGuard

Nearly one third of Americans (30 percent) believe that at least one of the three attempts on President Donald Trump’s life over the last two years was staged, according to a new NewsGuard/YouGov poll. For each attempted assassination, a majority of Americans said either that it was staged or that they were not sure — averaging 54 percent across all three.

Only 38 percent of Americans believe that all three assassination attempts were authentic.

A national survey of 1,000 Americans conducted by YouGov on behalf of NewsGuard asked respondents from April 28 to May 4 whether they believed any of the three attempts on Trump’s life — at a July 2024 campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, at Trump’s West Palm Beach golf course in September 2024, and at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in April 2026 — “was staged.” Respondents indicated whether they thought the statement that the assassination attempt was staged was “true,” “false,” or that they were “not sure.”

In fact, there is no evidence that any of the attempted assassinations of Trump were “staged.” Authorities say the alleged perpetrator in every incident acted alone and had no known connection to the Trump administration.

Note: Numbers for the White House Correspondents’ Dinner do not add up to 100 due to rounding.

A DEEP PARTISAN DIVIDE

The contention that the three events may have been staged correlates strongly with party identification. Across all three events, Democrats were far more likely than Republicans to endorse the “staged” framing.

• In total, 21 percent of Democrats responded that they thought all three events were staged, as did 11 percent of Independents and three percent of Republicans.
• Of the 12 percent of Americans who said that all three attempts were staged, 55 percent were Democrats, 38 percent were Independents, and seven percent were Republicans.
• Of the respondents who said that all three incidents were authentic, only 15 percent were Democrats. Thirty-eight percent were Independents and 47 percent were Republicans.
• For the most recent event — at the April 25, 2026, White House Correspondents’ Dinner — 34 percent of Democrats and 13 percent of Republicans said it was staged, a 21-point gap.

The 2024 incidents show an even larger partisan divide. For the Butler, Pennsylvania, shooting — when a bullet grazed Trump’s ear and a local firefighter attending the rally was killed — 42 percent of Democrats called it staged, compared to seven percent of Republicans — a 35-point spread, the largest partisan gap in the survey. For the Trump International Golf Club assassinaton attempt, 26 percent of Democrats and seven percent of Republicans said it was staged.

YOUNG PEOPLE ARE MORE SKEPTICAL

Young respondents (ages 18-29) were more likely than older respondents to say the incidents were staged. The largest gap was for the April 2026 assassination attempt in Washington. Thirty-two percent of 18- to 29-year-olds said it was staged, compared with 15 percent of those 65 and older.

Of respondents who believed that all three incidents were legitimate, only 13 percent were aged 18 to 29.

SAME PLAYBOOK

The left-wing conspiracy theory that staged shootings are part of Trump’s playbook has been persistent since the first attempt on Trump’s life at the Pennsylvania rally on July 13, 2024.

Minutes after Secret Service escorted a bleeding Trump off the stage, social media lit up with claims that the shooting was staged, arguing, for example, that Trump faked the shooting with a “blood pill” and that photojournalists at the scene had been tipped off. Nearly two years later, that narrative continues to gain traction, with claims by some social media users that an actual Russian plot to stage an assassination in Hungary that never came to fruition is proof that the Pennsylvania rally shooting was also staged.

The pattern repeated itself after Secret Service agents spotted a gunman on the edge of Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach where Trump was golfing on Sept. 15, 2024. Anti-Trump accounts used the incident as further ammunition to support their “staged” conspiracies, claiming Trump orchestrated the attempt to gain support ahead of the November 2024 election.

After the attempt on Trump’s life at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in April 2026, NewsGuard found that many of the same viral accounts that pushed the earlier staged-shootings conspiracies were advancing the same claim. Social media users claimed the incident was staged to distract from the Iran war or from Trump’s unfavorable polling numbers.

METHODOLOGY

NewsGuard commissioned a study with YouGov that polled a nationally representative sample of 1,000 Americans aged 18+. YouGov matches the respondent pool to national benchmarks from U.S. Census Data and weights to adjust for any imbalances to ensure representativeness. Results were weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, age, race, region, education, and political representativeness by 2024 presidential vote.

The survey was conducted from April 28 to May 4. The survey was carried out online and prompted respondents with three statements about the three high-profile attempts on President Donald Trump’s life. Respondents were asked to reply to each claim with a response of “True,” “False,” or “Not Sure.” The three statements tested were:

• “The assassination attempt against Donald Trump at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in April 2026 was staged.”
• “The assassination attempt against Donald Trump at a Trump presidential campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania in July 2024 was staged.”
• “The assassination attempt against Donald Trump at Trump International Golf Club in September 2024 was staged.”

After completing the survey, respondents were presented with accurate information debunking each false claim to ensure that the survey did not inadvertently advance false information.

Editor’s Note: After NewsGuard Reality Check received these results from YouGov, we were so surprised by the survey findings that we asked YouGov to go back and recheck the data. They did so and confirmed their findings.

NewsGuard Reality Check sheds light on the false claims spreading online, how they spread, and the forces behind them. Each day, we aim to bring you the story behind your news feed and help you stay informed about the false claims circulating in the news. Have feedback? Send us an email: realitycheck@newsguardtech.com.