A strong El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is expected to last into early 2027, raising questions about what it could mean for New Jersey’s winter temperatures, snowfall and storms.
El Niño is a naturally occurring warming of the tropical Pacific. Trade winds weaken, and the upper ocean heats up over a large enough area to shift the jet stream and weather patterns worldwide.
It typically arrives every two to seven years and alternates with La Niña, the cooling phase. Together they make up the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the largest driver of year-to-year weather variability around the globe.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and state forecasters anticipate a wetter-than-normal pattern along the East Coast.
A strengthening El Niño supercharges the subtropical jet stream, raising the likelihood of coastal storms, nor’easters, and heavy rain or mixed precipitation.
John Krasting, state climatologist and extension specialist at Rutgers University’s School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, said this event stands out.
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific were reported at 2.5 degrees Celsius above normal this past week, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Scientists classify anything above 2.0 degrees as a “super” El Niño. Only five such events have occurred since 1965, and NOAA projects a greater than 80% chance that this one will be the strongest since 1950 before ocean temperatures begin to cool next spring.
Krasting, a New Jersey native who spent 17 years at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton developing climate models, said every El Niño has its own character and the full effects on the state remain uncertain.
Past events, however, suggest a stronger subtropical jet stream, a river of warm, humid air that flows northward from the tropics.
That pattern tends to fuel coastal storms, which could bring more rain and coastal flooding to New Jersey this winter.
Nationally, the effects vary by region. Rainfall may increase across the Southwest, Texas, the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas, while the Ohio and Tennessee river valleys may see drier conditions. Warmer-than-average temperatures are likely across the Northern Plains, the Pacific Northwest and parts of southeastern Alaska.
Krasting also said climate change adds uncertainty. Scientists still do not know whether El Niño events will become more or less intense as the planet warms, but events occurring on a warmer baseline could amplify heavy rain and drought.
Most long-range models predict above-average temperatures across New Jersey, meaning milder days punctuated by occasional cold snaps.
Higher overall temperatures create a “rain-snow battleground.”
While seasonal snowfall totals may run near or below average in some spots, a “boom or bust” setup means the state could still get hit by one or more significant, high-impact winter storms—particularly during January and February.
State officials expressed concern about a higher risk of car accidents, hypothermia, frostbite, carbon monoxide poisoning, and heart attacks from overexertion because winter storms, including blizzards, can bring extreme cold, freezing rain, snow, ice, and high winds.
Coastal communities are already feeling the effects of earlier storms. A powerful nor’easter in late September caused the worst erosion in some locations since Superstorm Sandy.
Holgate and Long Beach Island saw steep cliffs form where beaches and dunes were washed away.
Krasting said wide beaches and dunes provide essential protection against winter storms, and that damage leaves the shoreline more vulnerable if coastal storm activity picks up.
Residents and local officials should monitor forecasts and prepare for possible coastal flooding as winter approaches, he said.
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